Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

SaiPa v Ässät

Kickoff: 2026-09-23 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

48%

29%

23%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SaiPa (Local)

Prediction 48.33%2.07fair odd

EV -2.37%

Edge -1.17%

Kelly -2.33%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

47.17%48.61%48.21%51.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.801.911.922.0255.56%52.44%52.08%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ässät (Visit)

Prediction 28.55%3.50fair odd

EV +2.77%

Edge +0.768%

Kelly +1.06%

Growth +0.029%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.92%28.33%28.77%29.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.903.333.403.6034.48%30.05%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.12%4.32fair odd

EV -2.88%

Edge -0.686%

Kelly -0.900%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.89%23.06%23.02%24.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.653.984.004.2027.40%25.15%25.00%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SaiPa (Local): 48.33%; Ässät (Visit): 28.55%; Draw: 23.12%. For Ässät (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.50. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.77%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Draw	Margin	Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.97I 50.76%NM 49.32%EV -4.79%E -2.43%K -4.94%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.99%EV +2.77%E +0.768%K +1.06%G +0.029%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.70%EV -5.19%E -1.27%K -1.68%G +0.000%	2.9%	2026-09-23 15:01
Svenska Spel🎯	1.97I 50.76%NM 49.32%EV -4.79%E -2.43%K -4.94%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.99%EV +2.77%E +0.768%K +1.06%G +0.029%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.70%EV -5.19%E -1.27%K -1.68%G +0.000%	2.9%	2026-09-23 15:00
ATG (SE)🎯	1.97I 50.76%NM 49.32%EV -4.79%E -2.43%K -4.94%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.99%EV +2.77%E +0.768%K +1.06%G +0.029%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.70%EV -5.19%E -1.27%K -1.68%G +0.000%	2.9%	2026-09-23 14:55
Coolbet🎯	2.02I 49.50%NM 48.22%EV -2.37%E -1.17%K -2.33%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 27.44%EV +1.34%E +0.377%K +0.525%G +0.007%	4.00I 25.00%NM 24.35%EV -7.51%E -1.88%K -2.50%G +0.000%	2.7%	2026-09-23 14:24
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.92I 52.08%NM 49.15%EV -7.21%E -3.75%K -7.83%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.96%EV -0.088%E -0.025%K -0.035%G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -8.66%E -2.19%K -2.94%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-09-23 14:55
Casumo🎯	1.92I 52.08%NM 49.15%EV -7.21%E -3.75%K -7.83%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.96%EV -0.088%E -0.025%K -0.035%G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -8.66%E -2.19%K -2.94%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-09-23 15:01
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.92I 52.08%NM 49.15%EV -7.21%E -3.75%K -7.83%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.96%EV -0.088%E -0.025%K -0.035%G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -8.66%E -2.19%K -2.94%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-09-23 14:55
Grosvenor🎯	1.92I 52.08%NM 49.15%EV -7.21%E -3.75%K -7.83%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.96%EV -0.088%E -0.025%K -0.035%G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -8.66%E -2.19%K -2.94%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-09-23 14:55
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -13.01%E -7.23%K -16.26%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -2.94%E -0.866%K -1.23%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -2.88%E -0.686%K -0.900%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-09-23 12:00
PMU (FR)🎯	1.81I 55.25%NM 49.08%EV -12.52%E -6.92%K -15.46%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -5.80%E -1.76%K -2.52%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -14.44%E -3.90%K -5.35%G +0.000%	12.6%	2026-09-23 14:55
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.97I 50.76%NM 47.92%EV -4.79%E -2.43%K -4.94%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.05%EV -7.22%E -2.22%K -3.21%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -5.19%E -1.27%K -1.68%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-23 12:40
1xBet🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.27%EV -5.76%E -2.95%K -6.06%G +0.000%	3.21I 31.15%NM 29.32%EV -8.37%E -2.61%K -3.79%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -2.88%E -0.686%K -0.900%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-09-23 15:19
Betway🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -7.69%E -4.03%K -8.45%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.65%E -2.70%K -3.93%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -7.51%E -1.88%K -2.50%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-09-23 10:20
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 47.93%EV -9.14%E -4.86%K -10.39%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%EV -12.93%E -4.24%K -6.31%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%EV -7.51%E -1.88%K -2.50%G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-09-23 12:40
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.86I 53.76%NM 47.64%EV -10.11%E -5.43%K -11.75%G +0.000%	3.02I 33.11%NM 29.34%EV -13.79%E -4.57%K -6.83%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 23.02%EV -10.97%E -2.85%K -3.85%G +0.000%	12.9%	2026-09-23 15:15
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.82I 54.95%NM 47.47%EV -12.04%E -6.61%K -14.68%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 29.79%EV -17.22%E -5.94%K -9.06%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 22.74%EV -12.13%E -3.19%K -4.33%G +0.000%	15.7%	2026-09-23 12:39
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.81I 55.25%NM 47.17%EV -12.52%E -6.92%K -15.46%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 29.44%EV -17.22%E -5.94%K -9.06%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 23.39%EV -15.60%E -4.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%	17.1%	2026-09-23 15:15

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91%	2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09%	0.7%	2026-09-23 15:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91%	2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09%	0.7%	2026-09-23 15:25
theScore Bet🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%	2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%	3.8%	2026-09-23 12:40
NordicBet🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.86%	2.59I 38.61%NM 37.14%	4.0%	2026-09-23 15:20
DraftKings🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%	4.1%	2026-09-23 10:24
Betsson🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%	5.0%	2026-09-23 13:40
Pinnacle🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%	2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%	5.2%	2026-09-23 14:55
BetRivers🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%	2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%	5.3%	2026-09-23 14:55
betPARX🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%	2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%	5.3%	2026-09-23 15:01
Bally Bet🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%	2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%	5.3%	2026-09-23 15:01
888sport🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%	5.7%	2026-09-23 12:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%	5.7%	2026-09-23 12:40
888sport (SE)🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%	5.7%	2026-09-23 12:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%	6.2%	2026-09-23 12:40
Paddy Power🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%	7.4%	2026-09-23 10:20
Coral🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%	7.6%	2026-09-21 07:39
Neds🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%	7.6%	2026-09-21 07:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%	7.6%	2026-09-21 07:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%	7.6%	2026-09-21 07:39
Smarkets◎	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%	8.0%	2026-09-23 12:40