The School of Odds
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Pelicans v Sport

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pelicans (Local)

Prediction 55.00%1.82fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -3.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.58%55.08%55.00%58.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.661.661.7763.69%60.08%60.24%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sport (Visit)

Prediction 22.26%4.49fair odd
EV +0.178%
Edge +0.040%
Kelly +0.051%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.24%22.34%22.17%23.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.214.354.5027.40%23.75%22.99%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.74%4.40fair odd
EV +3.45%
Edge +0.759%
Kelly +0.973%
Growth +0.034%

assuming max odds 4.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.68%22.58%22.83%23.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.214.304.5527.78%23.74%23.26%21.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pelicans (Local): 55.00%; Sport (Visit): 22.26%; Draw: 22.74%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.40. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.45%.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.08%EV -10.90%E -6.73%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.43I 22.57%NM 21.24%EV -1.38%E -0.312%K -0.402%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.68%EV +3.45%E +0.759%K +0.973%G +0.034%6.3%2026-10-16 15:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.68%EV -5.40%E -3.14%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.66%EV +0.178%E +0.040%K +0.051%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.66%EV +2.32%E +0.515%K +0.662%G +0.015%2.6%2026-10-16 10:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.68%EV -5.40%E -3.14%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.66%EV +0.178%E +0.040%K +0.051%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.66%EV +2.32%E +0.515%K +0.662%G +0.015%2.6%2026-10-16 10:19
ATG (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.68%EV -5.40%E -3.14%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.66%EV +0.178%E +0.040%K +0.051%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.66%EV +2.32%E +0.515%K +0.662%G +0.015%2.6%2026-10-16 10:19
Unibet (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -8.70%E -5.24%K -13.18%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -3.16%E -0.727%K -0.944%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -2.23%E -0.519%K -0.676%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-16 10:15
Casumo🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -8.70%E -5.24%K -13.18%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -3.16%E -0.727%K -0.944%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -2.23%E -0.519%K -0.676%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-16 10:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -8.70%E -5.24%K -13.18%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -3.16%E -0.727%K -0.944%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -2.23%E -0.519%K -0.676%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-16 10:15
Grosvenor🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.57%EV -8.70%E -5.24%K -13.18%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.59%EV -3.16%E -0.727%K -0.944%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%EV -2.23%E -0.519%K -0.676%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-16 10:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.74%EV -10.90%E -6.73%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -6.50%E -1.55%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -2.23%E -0.519%K -0.676%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-16 14:29
Unibet (UK)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.55%EV -5.95%E -3.48%K -8.38%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.09%EV -4.27%E -0.994%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.35%EV -3.37%E -0.793%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 14:10
Coolbet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.82%EV -2.65%E -1.50%K -3.44%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.80%EV -0.935%E -0.210%K -0.271%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.38%EV -5.64%E -1.36%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-16 09:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.93%EV -9.80%E -5.97%K -15.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -13.18%E -3.38%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -6.78%E -1.65%K -2.19%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-16 14:09
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -8.15%E -4.88%K -12.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -10.95%E -2.74%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.75%EV -9.05%E -2.26%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-16 14:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 54.58%EV -13.10%E -8.29%K -22.58%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.31%EV -17.63%E -4.77%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.11%EV -11.33%E -2.90%K -3.91%G +0.000%16.0%2026-10-16 14:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 53.78%EV -9.25%E -5.60%K -14.23%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 23.17%EV -14.74%E -3.85%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.05%EV -12.46%E -3.24%K -4.37%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-16 15:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 53.58%EV -13.65%E -8.69%K -23.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.05%EV -18.74%E -5.14%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.37%EV -18.15%E -5.04%K -6.98%G +0.000%18.9%2026-10-16 15:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%3.8%2026-10-16 14:10
NordicBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.28%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.72%3.9%2026-10-16 15:05
DraftKings🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%4.2%2026-10-16 14:10
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%4.3%2026-10-16 15:04
BetRivers🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%4.8%2026-10-16 10:15
Bally Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%4.8%2026-10-16 10:20
betPARX🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%4.8%2026-10-16 10:15
Pinnacle🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.61%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.39%5.7%2026-10-16 15:10
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%5.9%2026-10-16 07:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%5.9%2026-10-16 07:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%5.9%2026-10-16 07:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.42I 70.42%NM 65.87%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.13%6.9%2026-10-16 15:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.42I 70.42%NM 65.87%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.13%6.9%2026-10-16 15:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%7.1%2026-10-16 14:09
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%7.4%2026-10-16 14:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%7.4%2026-10-16 14:00
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%7.4%2026-10-16 14:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%7.4%2026-10-16 14:00
Smarkets◎1.38I 72.46%NM 66.83%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.17%8.4%2026-10-16 14:10