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Pelicans v SaiPa

Kickoff: 2026-03-11 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pelicans (Local)

Prediction 28.27%3.54fair odd
EV +1.76%
Edge +0.488%
Kelly +0.676%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.94%28.02%28.27%29.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.263.333.6033.90%30.64%30.08%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SaiPa (Visit)

Prediction 48.51%2.06fair odd
EV -2.01%
Edge -0.996%
Kelly -1.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.05%48.52%48.51%49.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.811.931.942.0255.25%51.90%51.55%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.22%4.31fair odd
EV -1.30%
Edge -0.305%
Kelly -0.399%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.16%23.46%23.22%24.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.583.943.954.2527.93%25.38%25.32%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pelicans (Local): 28.27%; SaiPa (Visit): 48.51%; Draw: 23.22%. For Pelicans (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.54. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.76%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%EV +1.76%E +0.488%K +0.676%G +0.012%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.50%EV -2.98%E -1.49%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.56%EV -8.26%E -2.09%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-11 11:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 28.17%EV -2.48%E -0.719%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.12%EV -2.01%E -0.996%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.71%EV -4.78%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-11 16:10
Svenska Spel🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 28.17%EV -2.48%E -0.719%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.12%EV -2.01%E -0.996%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.71%EV -4.78%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-11 16:10
ATG (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 28.17%EV -2.48%E -0.719%K -1.01%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.12%EV -2.01%E -0.996%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.71%EV -4.78%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-11 16:10
Unibet (UK)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.50%EV -5.31%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.22%EV -3.95%E -2.00%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.29%EV -4.78%E -1.17%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-11 11:35
Unibet (NL)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -5.31%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.30%EV -5.89%E -3.04%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -8.26%E -2.09%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-11 16:10
Casumo🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -5.31%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.30%EV -5.89%E -3.04%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -8.26%E -2.09%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-11 16:10
Grosvenor🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -5.31%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.30%EV -5.89%E -3.04%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -8.26%E -2.09%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-11 16:10
Unibet (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.97%EV -5.31%E -1.58%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.30%EV -5.89%E -3.04%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%EV -8.26%E -2.09%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-11 16:10
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -6.72%E -2.04%K -2.92%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -9.29%E -4.97%K -10.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -7.10%E -1.78%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-11 10:10
LeoVegas🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -8.14%E -2.50%K -3.62%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.25%EV -8.32%E -4.40%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.69%EV -10.59%E -2.75%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-11 16:10
Betway🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -9.55%E -2.98%K -4.34%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -7.35%E -3.85%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -7.10%E -1.78%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-11 10:15
1xBet🎯3.19I 31.35%NM 29.53%EV -9.83%E -3.08%K -4.49%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.31%EV -5.41%E -2.77%K -5.69%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -1.30%E -0.305%K -0.399%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-11 14:05
Winamax (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.12%EV -12.38%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.02%EV -8.80%E -4.68%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.86%EV -8.26%E -2.09%K -2.80%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-11 11:35
Everygame🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.99%EV -12.38%E -3.99%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.05%EV -7.35%E -3.85%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -12.91%E -3.44%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-11 16:24
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.97%EV -15.20%E -5.07%K -7.60%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 47.23%EV -10.74%E -5.84%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.81%EV -15.23%E -4.17%K -5.75%G +0.000%15.1%2026-03-11 16:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.35%EV -16.62%E -5.63%K -8.52%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 47.57%EV -11.71%E -6.44%K -14.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.09%EV -12.91%E -3.44%K -4.69%G +0.000%15.5%2026-03-11 11:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 28.95%EV -16.62%E -5.63%K -8.52%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 47.19%EV -12.20%E -6.74%K -15.06%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 23.86%EV -16.86%E -4.71%K -6.53%G +0.000%17.1%2026-03-11 16:06
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 38.73%1.58I 63.29%NM 61.27%3.3%2026-03-11 16:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 38.73%1.58I 63.29%NM 61.27%3.3%2026-03-11 16:20
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%3.8%2026-03-11 10:15
DraftKings🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%4.1%2026-03-11 13:31
Pinnacle🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%5.1%2026-03-11 12:55
NordicBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%5.3%2026-03-11 11:05
Betsson🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%5.3%2026-03-11 11:05
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%5.7%2026-03-11 14:35
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%5.7%2026-03-11 14:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%5.7%2026-03-11 14:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%5.7%2026-03-11 14:20
BetRivers🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%5.7%2026-03-11 11:25
betPARX🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%5.7%2026-03-11 11:25
Bally Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%5.7%2026-03-11 11:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%6.2%2026-03-11 10:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%8.0%2026-03-10 09:54
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%8.0%2026-03-10 09:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%8.0%2026-03-10 09:54
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%8.0%2026-03-10 09:54
Smarkets◎2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%8.0%2026-03-11 11:35
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%8.1%2026-03-08 17:09