The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Lukko v TPS

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lukko (Local)

Prediction 43.24%2.31fair odd
EV +5.08%
Edge +2.09%
Kelly +3.55%
Growth +0.181%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.25%42.75%43.52%45.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.162.152.4348.78%46.22%46.51%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TPS (Visit)

Prediction 56.76%1.76fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -4.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.67%57.25%56.48%60.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.681.691.7163.69%59.46%59.00%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lukko (Local): 43.24%; TPS (Visit): 56.76%. For Lukko (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.31. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.43, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.08%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.25%EV +5.08%E +2.09%K +3.55%G +0.181%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.75%EV -10.89%E -6.94%K -19.11%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-24 13:55
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -0.540%E -0.235%K -0.415%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -6.35%E -3.85%K -9.77%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-24 13:50
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -4.00%E -1.80%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -4.08%E -2.42%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-24 09:30
BetRivers🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.73%E -2.63%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.65%E -2.77%K -6.84%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-23 20:25
betPARX🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.73%E -2.63%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.65%E -2.77%K -6.84%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-23 20:25
Bally Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.73%E -2.63%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.65%E -2.77%K -6.84%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-23 20:24
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.73%E -2.63%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.65%E -2.77%K -6.84%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-24 09:29
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -7.03%E -3.27%K -6.11%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -2.95%E -1.72%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-24 09:29
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.03%E -3.27%K -6.11%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.51%E -2.07%K -5.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 09:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.03%E -3.27%K -6.11%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.51%E -2.07%K -5.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 09:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.03%E -3.27%K -6.11%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.51%E -2.07%K -5.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 09:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.03%E -3.27%K -6.11%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.22%E -3.12%K -7.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-24 09:15
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -11.35%E -5.54%K -10.81%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -3.51%E -2.07%K -5.02%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 05:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -11.35%E -5.54%K -10.81%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -3.51%E -2.07%K -5.02%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 05:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -11.35%E -5.54%K -10.81%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -3.51%E -2.07%K -5.02%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 05:05
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -11.35%E -5.54%K -10.81%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -3.51%E -2.07%K -5.02%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-24 05:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.05%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.95%2.3%2026-10-24 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.05%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.95%2.3%2026-10-24 13:50
Smarkets◎2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.61%8.3%2026-10-24 09:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.95%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.29%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.76%2.6%2026-10-24 09:25
Svenska Spel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.95%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.29%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.76%2.6%2026-10-24 09:24
ATG (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.95%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.29%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.76%2.6%2026-10-24 09:25
Coolbet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.78%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.68%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.54%3.1%2026-10-24 09:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.28%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%6.0%2026-10-24 09:29
1xBet🎯3.07I 32.57%NM 30.65%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.12%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.23%6.3%2026-10-24 13:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.34%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%6.4%2026-10-24 09:25
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.34%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%6.4%2026-10-24 09:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.34%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%6.4%2026-10-24 09:25
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.34%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%6.4%2026-10-24 09:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.04%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.78%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%8.8%2026-10-24 13:25
Betway🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.54%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%9.4%2026-10-24 09:05
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.29%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%10.0%2026-10-24 09:29
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.90%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.38%11.1%2026-10-24 09:29
Betclic (FR)🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 32.36%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.10%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.54%13.2%2026-10-24 13:44
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.20%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.16%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.65%15.9%2026-10-24 09:29
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.38%1.99I 50.25%NM 43.11%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.51%16.6%2026-10-24 13:49