The School of Odds
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Lukko v Sport

Kickoff: 2026-09-17 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lukko (Local)

Prediction 61.32%1.63fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -1.97%
Kelly -5.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.10%61.62%61.23%63.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.501.501.5869.93%66.82%66.67%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sport (Visit)

Prediction 18.74%5.34fair odd
EV +3.07%
Edge +0.557%
Kelly +0.681%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.39%18.61%18.72%20.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.305.065.205.5023.26%19.75%19.25%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.94%5.02fair odd
EV -2.31%
Edge -0.472%
Kelly -0.593%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.79%19.76%20.04%20.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.654.704.9023.26%21.51%21.28%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lukko (Local): 61.32%; Sport (Visit): 18.74%; Draw: 19.94%. For Sport (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.34. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.07%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.16%EV -4.33%E -2.78%K -7.74%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.63%EV +3.07%E +0.557%K +0.681%G +0.021%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.20%EV -4.30%E -0.897%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-17 12:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.16%EV -4.33%E -2.78%K -7.74%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.63%EV +3.07%E +0.557%K +0.681%G +0.021%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.20%EV -4.30%E -0.897%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-17 12:36
Svenska Spel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 62.16%EV -4.33%E -2.78%K -7.74%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.63%EV +3.07%E +0.557%K +0.681%G +0.021%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.20%EV -4.30%E -0.897%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-17 12:36
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.62%EV -8.01%E -5.34%K -16.03%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.39%EV +1.19%E +0.221%K +0.271%G +0.003%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.99%EV -6.30%E -1.34%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-17 12:36
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.62%EV -8.01%E -5.34%K -16.03%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.39%EV +1.19%E +0.221%K +0.271%G +0.003%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.99%EV -6.30%E -1.34%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-17 12:35
Casumo🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.62%EV -8.01%E -5.34%K -16.03%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.39%EV +1.19%E +0.221%K +0.271%G +0.003%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.99%EV -6.30%E -1.34%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-17 12:36
Unibet (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.62%EV -8.01%E -5.34%K -16.03%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.39%EV +1.19%E +0.221%K +0.271%G +0.003%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.99%EV -6.30%E -1.34%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-17 12:36
Coolbet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 61.35%EV -3.11%E -1.97%K -5.36%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.46%EV -1.62%E -0.308%K -0.381%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.19%EV -4.30%E -0.897%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-17 14:16
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.50%EV -11.08%E -7.64%K -24.62%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.71%EV -2.56%E -0.492%K -0.609%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.79%EV -2.31%E -0.472%K -0.593%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-17 14:41
1xBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.28%EV -7.40%E -4.90%K -14.51%G +0.000%5.19I 19.27%NM 18.12%EV -2.74%E -0.529%K -0.655%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -4.30%E -0.897%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-17 15:09
PMU (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.29%EV -12.31%E -8.61%K -28.62%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.47%EV -4.43%E -0.869%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.24%EV -12.28%E -2.79%K -3.61%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-17 12:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.70%EV -6.79%E -4.47%K -13.05%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -6.30%E -1.26%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -4.30%E -0.897%K -1.13%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-17 15:26
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.64%EV -8.01%E -5.34%K -16.03%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.15%EV -10.99%E -2.31%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.21%EV -10.29%E -2.29%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-17 15:26
Betclic (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 60.92%EV -11.08%E -7.64%K -24.62%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.00%EV -12.86%E -2.77%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.08%EV -12.28%E -2.79%K -3.61%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-17 15:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.10%EV -9.24%E -6.24%K -19.25%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.66%EV -13.80%E -3.00%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.24%EV -6.30%E -1.34%K -1.70%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-17 15:26
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.98%EV -11.69%E -8.12%K -26.58%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.51%EV -15.67%E -3.48%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.51%EV -10.29%E -2.29%K -2.94%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-17 12:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 60.10%EV -10.47%E -7.17%K -22.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.50%EV -15.67%E -3.48%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.40%EV -14.27%E -3.32%K -4.33%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-17 15:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.16%EV -11.69%E -8.12%K -26.58%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.15%EV -19.42%E -4.52%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.69%EV -12.28%E -2.79%K -3.61%G +0.000%15.4%2026-09-17 15:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%3.8%2026-09-17 15:26
NordicBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.56%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.44%4.0%2026-09-17 14:10
DraftKings🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%4.0%2026-09-17 15:10
BetRivers🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%5.1%2026-09-17 12:35
Bally Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%5.1%2026-09-17 12:36
betPARX🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%5.1%2026-09-17 12:35
Betsson🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%5.2%2026-09-17 14:09
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%5.5%2026-09-17 12:36
888sport (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%5.5%2026-09-17 12:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%5.5%2026-09-17 12:36
Pinnacle🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.29%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.71%5.8%2026-09-17 15:11
Neds🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%6.9%2026-09-17 12:36
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%6.9%2026-09-17 12:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%7.5%2026-09-17 12:35
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%7.5%2026-09-17 12:36
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.95%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%7.6%2026-09-17 15:25
Smarkets◎1.29I 77.52%NM 71.27%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%8.8%2026-09-17 15:26