The School of Odds
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Lukko v KooKoo

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lukko (Local)

Prediction 42.81%2.34fair odd
EV +0.605%
Edge +0.257%
Kelly +0.448%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.18%42.82%42.81%43.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.202.212.3550.00%45.41%45.25%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

KooKoo (Visit)

Prediction 33.11%3.02fair odd
EV -0.656%
Edge -0.219%
Kelly -0.328%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.04%33.10%33.11%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.802.833.0040.00%35.71%35.40%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.07%4.15fair odd
EV +2.32%
Edge +0.545%
Kelly +0.713%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.15%24.08%24.07%26.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.733.654.2528.99%26.85%27.40%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lukko (Local): 42.81%; KooKoo (Visit): 33.11%; Draw: 24.07%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.15. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.32%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.38%EV -7.10%E -3.27%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.48%EV -9.60%E -3.52%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.15%EV +2.32%E +0.545%K +0.713%G +0.017%6.2%2026-03-06 16:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.59%EV -4.96%E -2.23%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.77%EV -7.28%E -2.60%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.64%EV -3.70%E -0.925%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-06 11:45
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.11%EV -3.68%E -1.63%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.33%EV -0.656%E -0.219%K -0.328%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.56%EV -4.91%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-06 16:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -10.10%E -4.81%K -9.18%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.10%EV -12.25%E -4.62%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.88%EV -4.91%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-06 11:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%EV -10.10%E -4.81%K -9.18%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -7.28%E -2.60%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -6.11%E -1.57%K -2.11%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-06 15:55
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -5.82%E -2.64%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%EV -8.93%E -3.25%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -9.72%E -2.59%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-06 11:45
Everygame🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.93%EV -7.96%E -3.70%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.02%EV -12.25%E -4.62%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%EV -9.72%E -2.59%K -3.53%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-06 16:22
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.73%EV -14.38%E -7.19%K -14.38%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.18%EV -17.21%E -6.89%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.09%EV -10.92%E -2.95%K -4.05%G +0.000%17.0%2026-03-06 11:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.20%EV +0.605%E +0.257%K +0.448%G +0.003%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.27%EV -0.656%E -0.219%K -0.328%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.53%EV -12.13%E -3.32%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-06 11:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.20%EV +0.605%E +0.257%K +0.448%G +0.003%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.27%EV -0.656%E -0.219%K -0.328%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.53%EV -12.13%E -3.32%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-06 11:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.20%EV +0.605%E +0.257%K +0.448%G +0.003%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.27%EV -0.656%E -0.219%K -0.328%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.53%EV -12.13%E -3.32%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-06 11:45
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.27%EV -12.24%E -5.97%K -11.66%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.98%EV -15.56%E -6.10%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.74%EV -12.13%E -3.32%K -4.58%G +0.000%15.4%2026-03-06 16:20
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -2.39%E -1.05%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -3.97%E -1.37%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -14.53%E -4.09%K -5.70%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 11:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -2.39%E -1.05%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -3.97%E -1.37%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -14.53%E -4.09%K -5.70%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 11:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -2.39%E -1.05%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -3.97%E -1.37%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -14.53%E -4.09%K -5.70%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 11:10
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.18%EV -2.39%E -1.05%K -1.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -3.97%E -1.37%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -14.53%E -4.09%K -5.70%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-06 11:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 42.06%EV -13.09%E -6.45%K -12.71%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 33.88%EV -16.55%E -6.57%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.05%EV -14.53%E -4.09%K -5.70%G +0.000%17.1%2026-03-06 16:04
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.50%EV -5.82%E -2.64%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.04%EV -5.62%E -1.97%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.46%EV -16.94%E -4.91%K -6.92%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-06 11:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%3.8%2026-03-06 16:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%3.8%2026-03-06 16:20
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%4.1%2026-03-06 11:45
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%4.1%2026-03-06 11:45
Pinnacle🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.18%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.82%4.8%2026-03-06 16:00
BetRivers🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%5.0%2026-03-06 11:10
betPARX🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%5.0%2026-03-06 11:45
Bally Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%5.0%2026-03-06 11:45
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%5.3%2026-03-06 15:59
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%5.3%2026-03-06 16:00
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%5.4%2026-03-06 16:20
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%5.4%2026-03-06 16:21
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%5.4%2026-03-06 16:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%5.4%2026-03-06 16:20
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%6.3%2026-03-06 11:42
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%6.3%2026-03-06 11:45
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-03-06 11:45
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-03-06 14:35
Neds🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-03-06 14:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-03-06 14:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-03-06 14:35
Smarkets◎1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%8.3%2026-03-06 14:10