The School of Odds
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Lukko v Kiekko-Espoo

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lukko (Local)

Prediction 58.38%1.71fair odd
EV -2.51%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -3.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.85%58.33%58.45%59.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.631.621.6762.50%61.24%61.73%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kiekko-Espoo (Visit)

Prediction 41.62%2.40fair odd
EV -1.77%
Edge -0.750%
Kelly -1.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.40%41.67%41.55%43.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.272.302.3645.45%44.09%43.48%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lukko (Local): 58.38%; Kiekko-Espoo (Visit): 41.62%. For Kiekko-Espoo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.40. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.36, with an expected value of -1.77%; they did not produce positive expected value.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.51%E -1.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.27%E -1.86%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-17 13:05
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.51%E -1.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.43%E -3.83%K -7.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-17 13:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.51%E -1.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.43%E -3.83%K -7.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-17 13:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.51%E -1.50%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.43%E -3.83%K -7.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-17 13:05
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.68%E -2.23%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.27%E -1.86%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-17 13:10
NordicBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV -4.84%E -2.97%K -7.69%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -2.60%E -1.11%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-17 13:30
Betsson🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.43%E -3.35%K -8.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.27%E -1.86%K -3.28%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-17 13:30
BetRivers🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.43%E -3.35%K -8.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.27%E -1.86%K -3.28%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-17 09:35
betPARX🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.43%E -3.35%K -8.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.27%E -1.86%K -3.28%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-17 09:35
Bally Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.43%E -3.35%K -8.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.27%E -1.86%K -3.28%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-17 09:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.43%E -3.35%K -8.76%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.35%E -2.82%K -5.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-16 19:45
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -6.60%E -4.12%K -10.99%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -1.77%E -0.750%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-17 13:35
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.60%E -4.12%K -10.99%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.43%E -3.83%K -7.03%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 05:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.60%E -4.12%K -10.99%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.43%E -3.83%K -7.03%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-17 05:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 60.20%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.80%6.5%2026-10-17 13:55
Smarkets◎1.60I 62.50%NM 57.67%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%8.4%2026-10-17 13:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 58.29%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.71%10.0%2026-10-17 13:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.48%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.28%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%3.1%2026-10-17 09:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.06%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.76%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.18%3.4%2026-10-17 09:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.06%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.76%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.18%3.4%2026-10-17 09:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.06%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.76%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.18%3.4%2026-10-17 09:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.76%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.56%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%5.6%2026-10-17 13:04
1xBet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.84%3.17I 31.55%NM 29.73%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%6.1%2026-10-17 13:35
Grosvenor🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.07%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%6.4%2026-10-17 09:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.07%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%6.4%2026-10-17 09:35
Casumo🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.07%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%6.4%2026-10-17 09:34
Unibet (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.07%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.83%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%6.4%2026-10-17 09:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.72%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.60%8.7%2026-10-17 13:10
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.45%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%10.0%2026-10-16 22:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.79%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.26%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.95%10.3%2026-10-17 13:04
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.89%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.17%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.94%11.4%2026-10-17 13:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.19%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.86%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.94%12.9%2026-10-17 13:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 45.36%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.29%16.0%2026-10-17 13:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 44.75%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.99%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.26%19.5%2026-10-17 13:50