The School of Odds
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Lukko v KalPa

Kickoff: 2026-03-17 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lukko (Local)

Prediction 61.36%1.63fair odd
EV -1.82%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -3.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.00%61.25%61.56%62.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.541.531.6065.36%64.84%65.36%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

KalPa (Visit)

Prediction 38.64%2.59fair odd
EV -3.41%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -2.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.97%38.75%38.44%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.432.482.5043.48%41.10%40.32%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lukko (Local): 61.36%; KalPa (Visit): 38.64%. For Lukko (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.63. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.60, with an expected value of -1.82%; they did not produce positive expected value.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -1.82%E -1.14%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -7.27%E -3.03%K -5.19%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-17 04:34
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.05%E -1.93%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -7.27%E -3.03%K -5.19%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-17 13:45
theScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -3.66%E -2.33%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -3.41%E -1.36%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-17 10:44
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.27%E -2.74%K -7.63%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.27%E -3.03%K -5.19%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-16 12:00
Betsson🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.50%E -3.57%K -10.19%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.18%E -1.69%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-17 10:18
NordicBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.50%E -3.57%K -10.19%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.18%E -1.69%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-17 10:20
BetRivers🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.11%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.41%E -1.36%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-17 14:20
Bally Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.11%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.41%E -1.36%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-17 14:40
betPARX🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.11%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.41%E -1.36%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-17 14:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.11%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.41%E -1.36%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-16 11:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.11%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.41%E -1.36%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-16 12:00
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.11%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.41%E -1.36%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-16 12:44
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.11%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.41%E -1.36%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-16 11:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -6.11%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -11.14%E -4.84%K -8.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-16 15:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -6.11%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -11.14%E -4.84%K -8.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-16 15:00
Neds🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -6.11%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -11.14%E -4.84%K -8.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-16 15:00
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -6.11%E -4.00%K -11.54%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -11.14%E -4.84%K -8.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-16 15:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 66.03%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.97%5.9%2026-03-17 16:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 66.03%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.97%5.9%2026-03-17 16:25
Smarkets◎1.43I 69.93%NM 65.87%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.13%6.2%2026-03-17 16:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.71%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.28%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.01%3.3%2026-03-17 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.71%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.28%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.01%3.3%2026-03-17 14:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.71%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.28%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.01%3.3%2026-03-17 14:39
Coolbet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.40%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.27%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.33%3.3%2026-03-17 10:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.77%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.85%5.2%2026-03-16 12:00
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.85%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.27%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%6.3%2026-03-17 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.85%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.27%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%6.3%2026-03-17 14:20
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.85%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.27%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%6.3%2026-03-17 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.85%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.27%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.88%6.3%2026-03-17 14:20
1xBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.81%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.48%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.71%6.4%2026-03-17 15:45
Betway🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.40%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.87%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.74%8.3%2026-03-17 06:14
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%8.8%2026-03-16 11:59
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.87%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%9.2%2026-03-17 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.49%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.06%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.45%11.0%2026-03-16 12:00
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%11.5%2026-03-17 14:13
Everygame🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.48%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.60%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.92%11.5%2026-03-16 16:50
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.02%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.61%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.37%14.6%2026-03-17 16:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 48.59%2.97I 33.67%NM 28.79%3.78I 26.46%NM 22.62%16.9%2026-03-17 16:08
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 48.63%2.85I 35.09%NM 29.35%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.01%19.5%2026-03-16 12:00