The School of Odds
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Lukko v Jukurit

Kickoff: 2026-02-25 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lukko (Local)

Prediction 80.60%1.24fair odd
EV -0.055%
Edge -0.044%
Kelly -0.228%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.62%80.41%80.71%82.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.181.171.2486.96%84.86%85.47%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jukurit (Visit)

Prediction 19.40%5.15fair odd
EV +4.75%
Edge +0.880%
Kelly +1.08%
Growth +0.051%

assuming max odds 5.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.56%19.59%19.29%22.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.724.505.4023.26%21.20%22.22%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lukko (Local): 80.60%; Jukurit (Visit): 19.40%. For Jukurit (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.15. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.75%.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -7.31%E -6.36%K -48.73%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV +4.75%E +0.880%K +1.08%G +0.051%5.5%2026-02-25 15:25
Bally Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -7.31%E -6.36%K -48.73%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV +4.75%E +0.880%K +1.08%G +0.051%5.5%2026-02-25 15:25
betPARX🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -7.31%E -6.36%K -48.73%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV +4.75%E +0.880%K +1.08%G +0.051%5.5%2026-02-25 15:24
theScore Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -7.31%E -6.36%K -48.73%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV +1.84%E +0.351%K +0.434%G +0.008%6.0%2026-02-25 16:10
Pinnacle🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.63%EV -7.31%E -6.36%K -48.73%G +0.000%5.11I 19.57%NM 18.37%EV -0.871%E -0.171%K -0.212%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-25 15:50
Bovada🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -5.70%E -4.87%K -33.51%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -7.86%E -1.65%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-25 16:24
NordicBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -4.08%E -3.43%K -21.50%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -8.83%E -1.88%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-25 16:15
Betsson🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -4.08%E -3.43%K -21.50%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -8.83%E -1.88%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-25 16:14
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.28%E -2.73%K -16.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -12.70%E -2.82%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-25 14:55
William Hill🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.28%E -2.73%K -16.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -12.70%E -2.82%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-25 14:40
888sport🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.28%E -2.73%K -16.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -12.70%E -2.82%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-25 14:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.28%E -2.73%K -16.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -12.70%E -2.82%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-25 14:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.28%E -2.73%K -16.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -12.70%E -2.82%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-25 14:35
Paddy Power🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.70%E -4.87%K -33.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -12.70%E -2.82%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-25 14:35
Coral🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -5.70%E -4.87%K -33.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -14.64%E -3.33%K -4.31%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-25 15:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -5.70%E -4.87%K -33.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -14.64%E -3.33%K -4.31%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-25 15:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -5.70%E -4.87%K -33.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -14.64%E -3.33%K -4.31%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-25 15:05
Neds🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -5.70%E -4.87%K -33.51%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -14.64%E -3.33%K -4.31%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-25 15:04
DraftKings🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -0.055%E -0.044%K -0.228%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -16.58%E -3.86%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-25 14:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%5.2%2026-02-25 16:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%8.3%2026-02-25 15:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%8.3%2026-02-25 15:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 74.79%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.80%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.40%2.8%2026-02-25 15:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 74.79%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.80%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.40%2.8%2026-02-25 15:24
Svenska Spel🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 74.79%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.80%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.40%2.8%2026-02-25 15:25
Coolbet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.33%8.85I 11.30%NM 10.94%6.15I 16.26%NM 15.74%3.3%2026-02-25 14:34
Unibet (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.68%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.72%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.59%4.8%2026-02-25 16:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.72%6.1%2026-02-25 15:24
Casumo🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.72%6.1%2026-02-25 15:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.72%6.1%2026-02-25 15:25
Grosvenor🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.72%6.1%2026-02-25 15:25
1xBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.71%8.05I 12.42%NM 11.65%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%6.6%2026-02-25 15:25
Betway🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.16%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.55%8.5%2026-02-25 16:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.80%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%8.8%2026-02-25 16:10
LeoVegas🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.54%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.67%9.1%2026-02-25 15:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.35%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.59%10.6%2026-02-25 15:15
Everygame🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.32%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.91%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.77%12.2%2026-02-25 14:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 70.98%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.37%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.65%15.5%2026-02-25 15:15
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 67.18%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.09%4.85I 20.62%NM 17.73%16.3%2026-02-25 16:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 67.77%6.25I 16.00%NM 13.66%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.56%17.1%2026-02-25 16:09