默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Lukko v Jokerit

开赛时间： 2026-09-05 14:00 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

18 家博彩公司 (5 家纳入分析 )

47%

31%

23%

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Lukko (主队)

预测 46.91%2.13公平赔率

EV -2.43%

优势 -1.17%

Kelly -2.25%

增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.08

博彩公司预测分布

46.31%46.99%46.93%47.55%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

1.801.982.012.0855.56%50.48%49.63%48.08%最小值均值中位数最大值

Jokerit (客队)

预测 30.54%3.27公平赔率

EV -0.743%

优势 -0.229%

Kelly -0.330%

增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 3.25

博彩公司预测分布

29.76%30.48%30.58%31.46%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

2.653.053.063.2537.74%32.77%32.63%30.77%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 22.55%4.43公平赔率

EV -4.16%

优势 -0.979%

Kelly -1.28%

增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 4.25

博彩公司预测分布

21.85%22.53%22.50%23.63%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

3.754.044.004.2526.67%24.76%25.00%23.53%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Lukko (主队)：46.91%；Jokerit (客队)：30.54%；平局：22.55%。对于“Jokerit (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为3.27。当时没有符合条件的博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率：最佳赔率为3.25，期望值为-0.743%，未产生正期望值。

有 16 家博彩公司为该盘口提供了不同数量的选项（2 个赛果，而分析采用 3 个赛果）。由于这一差异，应谨慎看待分析结果。

博彩公司赔率 (18 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司	主队 ▼	客队	平局	利润率	更新时间
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	2.08I 48.08%NM 46.57%EV -2.43%E -1.17%K -2.25%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.80%EV -0.743%E -0.229%K -0.330%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.63%EV -7.54%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-09-03 17:44
ATG (SE)🎯	2.08I 48.08%NM 46.57%EV -2.43%E -1.17%K -2.25%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.80%EV -0.743%E -0.229%K -0.330%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.63%EV -7.54%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-09-03 17:45
Svenska Spel🎯	2.08I 48.08%NM 46.57%EV -2.43%E -1.17%K -2.25%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.80%EV -0.743%E -0.229%K -0.330%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.63%EV -7.54%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-09-03 17:45
Coolbet🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 46.95%EV -2.90%E -1.40%K -2.71%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.91%EV -0.743%E -0.229%K -0.330%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 23.14%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%	2.9%	2026-09-02 05:24
Unibet (UK)🎯	2.02I 49.50%NM 47.02%EV -5.24%E -2.60%K -5.14%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -5.32%E -1.72%K -2.54%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.35%EV -4.16%E -0.979%K -1.28%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-02 05:24
Unibet (SE)🎯	2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -5.24%E -2.60%K -5.14%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -3.80%E -1.21%K -1.77%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-03 17:44
Grosvenor🎯	2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -5.24%E -2.60%K -5.14%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -3.80%E -1.21%K -1.77%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-03 17:45
Casumo🎯	2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -5.24%E -2.60%K -5.14%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -3.80%E -1.21%K -1.77%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-03 17:45
Unibet (NL)🎯	2.02I 49.50%NM 46.59%EV -5.24%E -2.60%K -5.14%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -3.80%E -1.21%K -1.77%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-03 17:45
1xBet🎯	2.01I 49.75%NM 46.81%EV -5.71%E -2.84%K -5.66%G +0.000%	3.03I 33.00%NM 31.05%EV -7.46%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%EV -4.16%E -0.979%K -1.28%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-09-04 14:29
Betway🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -8.53%E -4.37%K -8.98%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -8.38%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%	9.6%	2026-09-04 12:00
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -9.47%E -4.90%K -10.18%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.59%EV -8.38%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -5.29%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-09-03 20:49
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.93I 51.81%NM 46.65%EV -9.47%E -4.90%K -10.18%G +0.000%	2.92I 34.25%NM 30.84%EV -10.82%E -3.71%K -5.64%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 22.51%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%	11.1%	2026-09-02 05:24
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.92I 52.08%NM 46.94%EV -9.93%E -5.17%K -10.80%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 31.08%EV -11.43%E -3.94%K -6.02%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 21.98%EV -7.54%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-09-02 05:25
PMU (FR)🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 46.74%EV -10.40%E -5.45%K -11.43%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 29.76%EV -8.38%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 23.50%EV -14.31%E -3.77%K -5.11%G +0.000%	12.0%	2026-09-03 17:45
Paddy Power🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 46.71%EV -10.40%E -5.45%K -11.43%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 30.98%EV -12.04%E -4.18%K -6.41%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 22.31%EV -9.80%E -2.45%K -3.27%G +0.000%	12.1%	2026-09-02 05:24
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.89I 52.91%NM 46.42%EV -11.34%E -6.00%K -12.74%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 30.79%EV -12.96%E -4.55%K -7.00%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 22.79%EV -13.18%E -3.42%K -4.62%G +0.000%	14.0%	2026-09-02 05:24
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 46.31%EV -15.56%E -8.65%K -19.45%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 31.46%EV -19.07%E -7.20%K -11.56%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 22.23%EV -15.44%E -4.12%K -5.61%G +0.000%	20.0%	2026-09-02 05:25

利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

其他博彩公司 — 未纳入分析 (16)

这些博彩公司为该盘口提供的选项数量不同，因而未纳入分析。其赔率仅供参考——相关投注的结算规则可能不同，并带来额外的不确定性。

博彩公司	选项 1	选项 2	利润率 ▲	更新时间
NordicBet🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%	4.1%	2026-09-03 18:00
DraftKings🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%	4.3%	2026-09-02 14:30
BetRivers🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%	5.2%	2026-09-03 18:05
Bally Bet🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%	5.2%	2026-09-03 18:05
betPARX🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%	5.2%	2026-09-03 18:00
888sport🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%	5.6%	2026-09-03 14:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%	5.6%	2026-09-03 14:04
888sport (SE)🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%	5.6%	2026-09-03 14:04
theScore Bet🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%	6.2%	2026-09-02 05:24
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%	6.2%	2026-09-02 05:45
Betsson🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%	6.2%	2026-09-03 18:00
Coral🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%	8.0%	2026-09-02 11:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%	8.0%	2026-09-02 11:34
Neds🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%	8.0%	2026-09-02 11:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%	8.0%	2026-09-02 11:34
Smarkets◎	1.56I 64.10%NM 58.06%	2.16I 46.30%NM 41.94%	10.4%	2026-09-02 14:05