Language:English
Lukko v Ilves
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lukko (Local)
Prediction 32.09%3.12fair odd
EV -2.13%
Edge -0.697%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.10%32.03%32.09%33.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.882.953.0538.46%34.72%33.90%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ilves (Visit)
Prediction 44.49%2.25fair odd
EV +2.33%
Edge +1.01%
Kelly +1.79%
Growth +0.042%
assuming max odds 2.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.16%44.12%44.49%45.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.062.052.3051.28%48.53%48.78%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.42%4.27fair odd
EV +0.698%
Edge +0.162%
Kelly +0.212%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 4.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.35%23.86%23.42%25.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.634.014.104.3027.55%24.91%24.39%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lukko (Local): 32.09%; Ilves (Visit): 44.49%; Draw: 23.42%. For Ilves (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.25. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.33%.
20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.32%EV -3.73%E -1.24%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.16%EV +2.33%E +1.01%K +1.79%G +0.042% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.52%EV -11.01%E -2.90%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-14 10:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.46%EV -5.33%E -1.81%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.74%EV -4.79%E -2.24%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.80%EV -1.64%E -0.391%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-14 12:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -2.13%E -0.697%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.70%EV -5.68%E -2.68%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.53%EV +0.698%E +0.162%K +0.212%G +0.001% | 3.2% | 2026-03-14 13:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -2.13%E -0.697%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.70%EV -5.68%E -2.68%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.53%EV +0.698%E +0.162%K +0.212%G +0.001% | 3.2% | 2026-03-14 13:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -2.13%E -0.697%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.70%EV -5.68%E -2.68%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.53%EV +0.698%E +0.162%K +0.212%G +0.001% | 3.2% | 2026-03-14 13:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.77%EV -7.90%E -2.75%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 2.11I 47.39%NM 44.57%EV -6.12%E -2.90%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.66%EV -2.81%E -0.678%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-14 14:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83%EV -5.33%E -1.81%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.81%EV -8.79%E -4.29%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -1.64%E -0.391%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-14 13:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83%EV -5.33%E -1.81%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.81%EV -8.79%E -4.29%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -1.64%E -0.391%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-14 13:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83%EV -5.33%E -1.81%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.81%EV -8.79%E -4.29%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -1.64%E -0.391%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-14 13:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83%EV -5.33%E -1.81%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.81%EV -8.79%E -4.29%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -1.64%E -0.391%K -0.514%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-14 13:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -8.54%E -3.00%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.81%EV -8.79%E -4.29%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -6.33%E -1.58%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-14 12:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -5.33%E -1.81%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.75%EV -8.79%E -4.29%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.14%EV -11.01%E -2.90%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-14 14:20 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.54%EV -8.54%E -3.00%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -8.79%E -4.29%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.62%EV -14.52%E -3.98%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-14 14:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 31.82%EV -7.58%E -2.63%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.82%EV -11.02%E -5.51%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -3.99%E -0.972%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-14 13:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -11.75%E -4.27%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -11.02%E -5.51%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%EV -6.33%E -1.58%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-03-14 12:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.78%EV -10.15%E -3.62%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.49%EV -11.02%E -5.51%K -11.02%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -12.18%E -3.25%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-03-14 12:39 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 32.74%EV -14.96%E -5.65%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 43.82%EV -11.91%E -6.01%K -12.15%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.45%EV -13.35%E -3.61%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-03-14 14:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 33.21%EV -16.57%E -6.37%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 44.06%EV -12.80%E -6.53%K -13.33%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.73%EV -11.01%E -2.90%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 15.8% | 2026-03-14 12:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 32.62%EV -15.92%E -6.08%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 43.83%EV -13.24%E -6.79%K -13.94%G +0.000% | 3.63I 27.55%NM 23.55%EV -14.99%E -4.13%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 17.0% | 2026-03-14 14:36 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92% | 2.2% | 2026-03-14 14:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92% | 2.2% | 2026-03-14 14:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11% | 3.6% | 2026-03-14 12:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14% | 4.2% | 2026-03-14 11:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07% | 4.9% | 2026-03-14 14:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 13:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 13:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 13:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 13:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33% | 5.1% | 2026-03-14 13:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63% | 5.6% | 2026-03-14 14:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63% | 5.6% | 2026-03-14 14:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63% | 5.6% | 2026-03-14 14:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63% | 5.6% | 2026-03-14 14:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14% | 6.1% | 2026-03-14 14:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28% | 6.4% | 2026-03-14 12:39 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67% | 7.6% | 2026-03-14 12:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67% | 7.6% | 2026-03-14 12:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67% | 7.6% | 2026-03-14 12:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67% | 7.6% | 2026-03-14 12:35 |