The School of Odds
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KooKoo v SaiPa

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

KooKoo (Local)

Prediction 60.45%1.65fair odd
EV -0.257%
Edge -0.156%
Kelly -0.396%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.75%60.30%60.25%62.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.561.561.6565.36%64.08%64.10%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SaiPa (Visit)

Prediction 39.55%2.53fair odd
EV -1.13%
Edge -0.450%
Kelly -0.750%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.97%39.70%39.75%41.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.382.382.5044.44%42.03%42.02%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: KooKoo (Local): 60.45%; SaiPa (Visit): 39.55%. For KooKoo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.654. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.650, with an expected value of -0.257%; they did not produce positive expected value.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -0.257%E -0.156%K -0.396%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -7.06%E -3.00%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-21 15:25
DraftKings🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.28%E -2.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -5.08%E -2.12%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-21 15:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -3.88%E -2.44%K -6.58%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -9.04%E -3.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-21 15:24
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.09%E -3.24%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.87%E -2.47%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-21 15:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.09%E -3.24%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.87%E -2.47%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-21 15:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.09%E -3.24%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.87%E -2.47%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-21 15:15
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.09%E -3.24%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -11.01%E -4.89%K -8.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-21 15:15
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.39%EV -5.70%E -3.65%K -10.17%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.61%EV -1.92%E -0.773%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-21 15:15
Pinnacle🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.70%E -3.65%K -10.17%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -3.10%E -1.27%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-21 15:15
Bally Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.30%E -4.07%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.10%E -1.27%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-21 15:14
betPARX🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.30%E -4.07%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.10%E -1.27%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-21 15:15
NordicBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -6.91%E -4.48%K -12.79%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -1.92%E -0.773%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-21 12:55
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.51%E -4.91%K -14.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -1.13%E -0.450%K -0.750%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-21 13:09
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.51%E -4.91%K -14.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -9.04%E -3.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-19 11:15
Neds🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.51%E -4.91%K -14.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -9.04%E -3.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-19 11:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.51%E -4.91%K -14.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -9.04%E -3.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-19 11:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.51%E -4.91%K -14.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -9.04%E -3.93%K -6.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-19 11:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 61.62%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.38%6.8%2026-04-21 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%7.5%2026-04-21 15:20
Smarkets◎1.57I 63.69%NM 58.79%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.21%8.3%2026-04-21 15:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 48.55%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.74%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.71%2.5%2026-04-21 12:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.66%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.13%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.21%3.0%2026-04-21 15:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.66%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.13%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.21%3.0%2026-04-21 15:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.66%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.13%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.21%3.0%2026-04-21 15:15
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.69%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%6.0%2026-04-21 15:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.69%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%6.0%2026-04-21 15:15
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.69%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%6.0%2026-04-21 15:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.69%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%6.0%2026-04-21 15:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.06%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%6.3%2026-04-21 15:25
1xBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.25%3.07I 32.57%NM 30.63%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.12%6.4%2026-04-21 15:25
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%9.2%2026-04-21 15:25
LeoVegas🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.85%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.03%9.4%2026-04-21 15:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.04%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.10%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.86%10.7%2026-04-21 15:25
Everygame🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.98%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.02%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.99%11.1%2026-04-21 15:14
Unibet (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.47%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.74%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.79%12.1%2026-04-21 15:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 46.90%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.14%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.97%12.8%2026-04-21 15:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 46.18%2.98I 33.56%NM 29.44%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.37%14.0%2026-04-21 15:22
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 46.54%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.37%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.08%15.5%2026-04-21 15:25