The School of Odds
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Kiekko-Espoo v TPS

2026-10-28 16:30 UTC — Liiga

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kiekko-Espoo (Local)

Prediction 52.94%1.89fair odd
EV -3.65%
Edge -2.00%
Kelly -4.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.73%52.94%52.89%53.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.781.781.8257.80%56.18%56.18%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TPS (Visit)

Prediction 47.06%2.13fair odd
EV -4.47%
Edge -2.20%
Kelly -4.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.38%47.06%47.11%47.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.012.002.0350.00%49.75%49.88%49.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Kiekko-Espoo (Local): 52.94%; TPS (Visit): 47.06%. For Kiekko-Espoo (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.89. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.82, with an expected value of -3.65%; they do not produce positive expected value.

6 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.73%EV -3.65%E -2.00%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.27%EV -4.47%E -2.20%K -4.34%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-25 18:15
Betsson🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.71%E -2.61%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -4.94%E -2.45%K -4.85%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-25 18:15
Pinnacle🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.89%EV -5.23%E -2.92%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.11%EV -5.41%E -2.69%K -5.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-25 16:55
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.29%E -3.56%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.88%E -2.94%K -5.88%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 16:57
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.29%E -3.56%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.88%E -2.94%K -5.88%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-25 17:49
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.41%E -4.86%K -11.52%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.88%E -2.94%K -5.88%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-25 17:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.73I 57.80%NM 52.47%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.53%10.2%2026-10-25 17:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-10-25 18:42
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-10-25 18:42

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (6)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.18%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.97%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.85%5.9%2026-10-25 16:55
1xBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.16%2.61I 38.31%NM 35.95%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%6.6%2026-10-25 17:18
Betclic (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.08%2.57I 38.91%NM 35.09%3.63I 27.55%NM 24.84%10.9%2026-10-25 16:56
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.83%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.22%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%11.3%2026-10-25 17:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.84%2.45I 40.82%NM 34.96%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.19%16.7%2026-10-25 16:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 40.54%2.35I 42.55%NM 35.37%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.09%20.3%2026-10-25 17:00