The School of Odds
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Kiekko-Espoo v TPS

Kickoff: 2026-10-28 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kiekko-Espoo (Local)

Prediction 53.14%1.88fair odd
EV -2.75%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -3.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.22%53.12%53.13%55.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.771.761.8359.88%56.65%56.82%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TPS (Visit)

Prediction 46.86%2.13fair odd
EV -1.59%
Edge -0.759%
Kelly -1.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%46.88%46.87%47.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.032.022.1050.00%49.29%49.50%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kiekko-Espoo (Local): 53.14%; TPS (Visit): 46.86%. For TPS (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.13. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.10, with an expected value of -1.59%; they did not produce positive expected value.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.75%E -1.50%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.28%E -3.14%K -6.28%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-28 16:25
NordicBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%EV -3.82%E -2.11%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%EV -4.41%E -2.16%K -4.24%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-28 15:35
Betsson🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.35%E -2.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.34%E -2.65%K -5.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-28 15:35
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.35%E -2.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.28%E -3.14%K -6.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-26 16:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.35%E -2.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.28%E -3.14%K -6.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-26 16:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.35%E -2.42%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.28%E -3.14%K -6.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-26 16:34
Pinnacle🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.39%EV -4.88%E -2.73%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.61%EV -3.94%E -1.92%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-28 15:45
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.94%E -3.36%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.94%E -1.92%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-28 10:55
BetRivers🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -6.47%E -3.68%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -3.47%E -1.68%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-28 10:54
Bally Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -6.47%E -3.68%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -3.47%E -1.68%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-28 10:55
betPARX🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -6.47%E -3.68%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -3.47%E -1.68%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-28 11:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -7.54%E -4.33%K -10.18%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -3.94%E -1.92%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-28 10:54
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.07%E -4.66%K -11.05%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.28%E -3.14%K -6.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-26 17:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.07%E -4.66%K -11.05%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.28%E -3.14%K -6.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-26 17:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.07%E -4.66%K -11.05%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.28%E -3.14%K -6.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-27 09:29
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.07%E -4.66%K -11.05%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.28%E -3.14%K -6.28%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-27 09:30
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -11.26%E -6.74%K -16.80%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -1.59%E -0.759%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-28 10:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 51.33%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.67%6.5%2026-10-28 16:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 51.47%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.53%6.8%2026-10-28 16:25
Smarkets◎1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%8.1%2026-10-28 13:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 40.11%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.67%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.21%3.0%2026-10-28 06:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.20%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.97%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.83%3.3%2026-10-28 13:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.20%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.97%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.83%3.3%2026-10-28 13:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.20%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.97%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.83%3.3%2026-10-28 13:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.54%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%6.1%2026-10-28 10:55
1xBet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.64%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.12%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.24%6.3%2026-10-28 12:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.17%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%6.5%2026-10-28 11:04
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.17%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%6.5%2026-10-28 11:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.17%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.13%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%6.5%2026-10-28 11:05
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%8.5%2026-10-28 10:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.51%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%8.5%2026-10-28 16:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.92%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.67%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.41%10.9%2026-10-28 10:54
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.22%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.17%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.62%11.3%2026-10-28 11:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 41.48%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.98%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.54%13.2%2026-10-28 16:08
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.85%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.32%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.83%16.6%2026-10-28 10:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 40.99%2.40I 41.67%NM 34.16%3.30I 30.30%NM 24.84%22.0%2026-10-28 16:19