The School of Odds
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Kiekko-Espoo v TPS

Kickoff: 2026-09-30 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kiekko-Espoo (Local)

Prediction 51.15%1.96fair odd
EV -2.31%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -2.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.20%50.92%55.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.811.831.9159.88%55.37%54.64%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TPS (Visit)

Prediction 48.85%2.05fair odd
EV +2.59%
Edge +1.24%
Kelly +2.36%
Growth +0.061%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%48.80%49.08%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.991.962.1052.36%50.37%51.02%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kiekko-Espoo (Local): 51.15%; TPS (Visit): 48.85%. For TPS (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.05. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.59%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -14.59%E -8.73%K -21.77%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV +2.59%E +1.24%K +2.36%G +0.061%7.5%2026-09-28 14:15
Neds🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -14.59%E -8.73%K -21.77%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV +2.59%E +1.24%K +2.36%G +0.061%7.5%2026-09-28 14:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -14.59%E -8.73%K -21.77%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV +2.59%E +1.24%K +2.36%G +0.061%7.5%2026-09-28 14:15
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -14.59%E -8.73%K -21.77%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV +2.59%E +1.24%K +2.36%G +0.061%7.5%2026-09-28 14:15
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.40%E -3.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.29%E -1.15%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-30 15:00
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.94%E -4.41%K -9.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.29%E -1.15%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-30 11:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.94%E -4.41%K -9.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.29%E -1.15%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-30 11:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.94%E -4.41%K -9.92%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.29%E -1.15%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-30 11:00
NordicBet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.91%EV -3.33%E -1.76%K -3.75%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.09%EV -4.25%E -2.17%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-30 15:20
Pinnacle🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.36%E -2.33%K -5.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.73%E -2.43%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-30 15:15
betPARX🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -4.36%E -2.33%K -5.01%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -5.71%E -2.96%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 14:55
BetRivers🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -4.36%E -2.33%K -5.01%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -5.71%E -2.96%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 14:55
Bally Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -4.36%E -2.33%K -5.01%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -5.71%E -2.96%K -6.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 14:54
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.85%E -2.05%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.20%E -3.23%K -6.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 15:20
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.31%E -1.21%K -2.54%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.69%E -3.50%K -7.35%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-30 15:04
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.40%E -3.50%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.69%E -3.50%K -7.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-30 15:01
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.94%E -4.41%K -9.92%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.69%E -3.50%K -7.35%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-30 15:01
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.70I 58.82%NM 52.78%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.22%11.5%2026-09-30 15:01

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 38.08%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.34%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.58%3.0%2026-09-30 14:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 38.08%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.34%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.58%3.0%2026-09-30 14:54
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 38.08%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.34%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.58%3.0%2026-09-30 14:54
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.27%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.21%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.52%3.1%2026-09-30 11:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.93%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%6.3%2026-09-30 14:54
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.93%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%6.3%2026-09-30 14:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.93%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%6.3%2026-09-30 14:55
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.93%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%6.3%2026-09-30 14:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%6.4%2026-09-30 15:00
1xBet🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.21%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.89%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.90%6.7%2026-09-30 15:22
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.92%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%8.3%2026-09-30 15:01
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.78%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%8.5%2026-09-30 14:54
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.18%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.78%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.03%11.0%2026-09-30 15:01
PMU (FR)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.21%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.40%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.39%12.3%2026-09-30 14:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.75%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.36%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.89%13.2%2026-09-30 15:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.13%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.63%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.25%16.2%2026-09-30 15:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 38.67%2.30I 43.48%NM 36.14%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.19%20.3%2026-09-30 15:00