The School of Odds
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Kiekko-Espoo v Kärpät

2026-10-02 15:30 UTC — Liiga

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kiekko-Espoo (Local)

Prediction 56.72%1.76fair odd
EV -3.00%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -4.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.15%56.71%56.85%57.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.671.671.7161.73%59.88%59.88%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kärpät (Visit)

Prediction 43.28%2.31fair odd
EV -4.79%
Edge -2.18%
Kelly -3.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.41%43.29%43.15%43.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.182.192.202.2045.87%45.63%45.56%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Kiekko-Espoo (Local): 56.72%; Kärpät (Visit): 43.28%. For Kiekko-Espoo (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.76. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.71, with an expected value of -3.00%; they do not produce positive expected value.

15 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV -3.00%E -1.76%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%EV -5.23%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-30 20:20
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.70%E -2.80%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.66%E -2.60%K -4.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-30 20:14
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.70%E -2.80%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.66%E -2.60%K -4.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-30 19:54
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.70%E -2.80%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.66%E -2.60%K -4.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-30 19:55
Bally Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.70%E -2.80%K -6.92%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.66%E -2.60%K -4.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-30 19:54
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.27%E -3.16%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.79%E -2.18%K -3.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 19:54
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.27%E -3.16%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.79%E -2.18%K -3.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 20:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.27%E -3.16%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.79%E -2.18%K -3.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 19:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.27%E -3.16%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.79%E -2.18%K -3.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-30 19:54
Pinnacle🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.88%EV -5.84%E -3.52%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.12%EV -5.23%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-30 20:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.41%E -3.88%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -4.79%E -2.18%K -3.99%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-30 20:20
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.11%E -5.00%K -13.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.79%E -2.18%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-30 20:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%10.1%2026-09-30 20:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-10-01 00:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-10-01 00:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (15)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.36%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%3.0%2026-09-30 20:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.36%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%3.0%2026-09-30 20:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.36%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%3.0%2026-09-30 20:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.67%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.05%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.28%5.6%2026-09-30 20:20
Casumo🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.48%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.52%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%6.0%2026-09-30 20:29
Unibet (NL)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.48%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.52%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%6.0%2026-09-30 20:29
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.48%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.52%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%6.0%2026-09-30 20:29
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.48%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.52%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%6.0%2026-09-30 20:30
1xBet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.62%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.13%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.25%6.2%2026-09-30 20:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.68%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%9.0%2026-09-30 21:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 44.38%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.28%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.35%11.0%2026-09-30 20:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.02%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.59%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.39%11.1%2026-09-30 20:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.51%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.37%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.12%12.3%2026-09-30 20:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 43.98%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.14%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.88%19.7%2026-09-30 20:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 43.65%2.60I 38.46%NM 31.73%3.35I 29.85%NM 24.62%21.2%2026-09-30 20:20