The School of Odds
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Kiekko-Espoo v Kärpät

Kickoff: 2026-10-02 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kiekko-Espoo (Local)

Prediction 55.63%1.80fair odd
EV -3.20%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -4.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.15%55.73%55.53%59.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.671.701.7464.52%60.01%58.82%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kärpät (Visit)

Prediction 44.37%2.25fair odd
EV +2.05%
Edge +0.890%
Kelly +1.57%
Growth +0.032%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.26%44.27%44.47%44.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.122.192.152.3047.17%45.74%46.51%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kiekko-Espoo (Local): 55.63%; Kärpät (Visit): 44.37%. For Kärpät (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.25. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.05%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -13.77%E -8.88%K -25.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV +2.05%E +0.890%K +1.57%G +0.032%8.0%2026-10-01 06:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -13.77%E -8.88%K -25.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV +2.05%E +0.890%K +1.57%G +0.032%8.0%2026-10-01 06:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -13.77%E -8.88%K -25.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV +2.05%E +0.890%K +1.57%G +0.032%8.0%2026-10-01 06:00
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -13.77%E -8.88%K -25.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV +2.05%E +0.890%K +1.57%G +0.032%8.0%2026-10-01 06:01
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.87%E -2.85%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.39%E -1.09%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-02 09:30
Pinnacle🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.54%E -3.89%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.39%E -1.09%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-02 13:45
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -9.88%E -6.10%K -15.93%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -2.39%E -1.09%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-02 09:40
NordicBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -3.76%E -2.17%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -4.61%E -2.14%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-02 15:00
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.43%E -3.19%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.61%E -2.14%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 09:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.43%E -3.19%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.61%E -2.14%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 09:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.43%E -3.19%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.61%E -2.14%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 09:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.10%E -4.25%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.61%E -2.14%K -4.01%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-02 09:24
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -3.20%E -1.84%K -4.33%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -5.05%E -2.36%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-02 09:35
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.31%E -2.51%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.94%E -2.80%K -5.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 15:00
BetRivers🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.31%E -2.51%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.94%E -2.80%K -5.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 10:35
betPARX🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.31%E -2.51%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.94%E -2.80%K -5.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 10:35
Bally Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.31%E -2.51%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.94%E -2.80%K -5.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-02 10:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%5.4%2026-10-02 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%5.4%2026-10-02 15:25
Smarkets◎1.65I 60.61%NM 56.23%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.77%7.8%2026-10-02 15:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.14%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.90%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.96%3.0%2026-10-02 10:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.48%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.43%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.09%3.1%2026-10-02 10:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.48%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.43%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.09%3.1%2026-10-02 10:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.48%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.43%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.09%3.1%2026-10-02 10:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.47%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.96%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%6.1%2026-10-02 09:39
Casumo🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.40%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.63%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%6.2%2026-10-02 10:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.40%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.63%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%6.2%2026-10-02 10:35
Grosvenor🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.40%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.63%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%6.2%2026-10-02 10:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.40%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.63%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%6.2%2026-10-02 10:35
1xBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.47%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.69%6.2%2026-10-02 14:09
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.88%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.59%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%9.0%2026-10-02 13:30
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.13%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.74%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%10.5%2026-10-02 09:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.07%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%11.4%2026-10-02 09:39
PMU (FR)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.24%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.62%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.14%12.3%2026-10-02 10:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.20%2.77I 36.10%NM 31.91%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.89%13.1%2026-10-02 15:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 44.07%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.59%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.34%15.8%2026-10-02 09:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 43.70%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.10%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.19%19.8%2026-10-02 09:40