The School of Odds
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Kiekko-Espoo v Jokerit

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kiekko-Espoo (Local)

Prediction 64.92%1.54fair odd
EV -3.27%
Edge -2.19%
Kelly -6.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.32%65.19%64.80%67.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.451.441.4971.43%69.20%69.44%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jokerit (Visit)

Prediction 35.08%2.85fair odd
EV +1.03%
Edge +0.359%
Kelly +0.549%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.87%34.81%35.20%35.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.712.702.8837.74%36.83%37.04%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kiekko-Espoo (Local): 64.92%; Jokerit (Visit): 35.08%. For Jokerit (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.85. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.88, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.03%.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.13%EV -8.46%E -6.00%K -20.64%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.87%EV +1.03%E +0.359%K +0.549%G +0.006%5.6%2026-09-26 13:50
theScore Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.92%E -2.65%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -3.53%E -1.28%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-26 12:45
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.52%E -4.53%K -14.81%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.53%E -1.28%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-26 09:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.52%E -4.53%K -14.81%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.53%E -1.28%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-26 09:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.52%E -4.53%K -14.81%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.53%E -1.28%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-26 09:40
NordicBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.52%EV -3.27%E -2.19%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.48%EV -4.93%E -1.82%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-26 10:20
DraftKings🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -3.27%E -2.19%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -5.28%E -1.96%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-26 10:25
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.92%E -2.65%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -5.28%E -1.96%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-26 10:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.52%E -4.53%K -14.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -5.28%E -1.96%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-26 12:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -9.11%E -6.51%K -22.78%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -5.28%E -1.96%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-26 09:35
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -9.11%E -6.51%K -22.78%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -5.28%E -1.96%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-26 09:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -9.11%E -6.51%K -22.78%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -5.28%E -1.96%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-26 09:35
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -9.11%E -6.51%K -22.78%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -5.28%E -1.96%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-26 09:35
BetRivers🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.57%E -3.11%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -7.04%E -2.66%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-26 09:30
Bally Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.57%E -3.11%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -7.04%E -2.66%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-26 09:29
betPARX🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.57%E -3.11%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -7.04%E -2.66%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-26 09:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.43I 69.93%NM 64.69%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.31%8.1%2026-09-26 12:45

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.43%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.74%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.82%3.1%2026-09-26 09:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.88%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.13%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99%3.3%2026-09-26 09:29
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.88%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.13%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99%3.3%2026-09-26 09:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.88%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.13%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99%3.3%2026-09-26 09:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.02%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.73%5.8%2026-09-26 12:45
1xBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.34%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.14%6.3%2026-09-26 12:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.77%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%6.5%2026-09-26 09:30
Grosvenor🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.77%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%6.5%2026-09-26 09:30
Casumo🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.77%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%6.5%2026-09-26 09:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.77%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%6.5%2026-09-26 09:30
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.81%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.54%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.65%8.7%2026-09-26 12:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%8.8%2026-09-26 12:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.57%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.43%11.1%2026-09-26 12:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.11%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.13%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76%12.1%2026-09-26 09:29
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%12.7%2026-09-26 12:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.91%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.89%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.20%13.2%2026-09-26 13:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 52.84%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.67%15.4%2026-09-26 12:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 52.40%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.12%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.48%17.1%2026-09-26 12:45