The School of Odds
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Kiekko-Espoo v HIFK

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kiekko-Espoo (Local)

Prediction 57.00%1.75fair odd
EV -3.09%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -4.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.70%56.92%56.92%57.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.671.681.7061.73%59.77%59.52%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HIFK (Visit)

Prediction 43.00%2.33fair odd
EV -3.26%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -2.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.31%43.08%43.08%44.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.182.202.2547.62%45.95%45.45%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kiekko-Espoo (Local): 57.00%; HIFK (Visit): 43.00%. For Kiekko-Espoo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.75. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.70, with an expected value of -3.09%; they did not produce positive expected value.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.09%E -1.82%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.56%E -3.51%K -6.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-23 15:22
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.09%E -1.82%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.56%E -3.51%K -6.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-23 15:22
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.09%E -1.82%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.56%E -3.51%K -6.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-23 15:21
NordicBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.89%EV -3.66%E -2.17%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%EV -4.12%E -1.85%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-23 15:21
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.23%E -2.52%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.69%E -1.65%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-23 15:50
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.23%E -2.52%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.41%E -2.46%K -4.51%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-23 09:31
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.23%E -2.52%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.41%E -2.46%K -4.51%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-23 09:31
Bally Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.23%E -2.52%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.41%E -2.46%K -4.51%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-23 09:30
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.23%E -2.52%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -6.27%E -2.87%K -5.31%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-23 15:21
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.80%E -2.88%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.71%E -4.62%K -8.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-23 11:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.80%E -2.88%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.71%E -4.62%K -8.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-23 11:10
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.80%E -2.88%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.71%E -4.62%K -8.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-23 11:10
Neds🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.80%E -2.88%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.71%E -4.62%K -8.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-23 11:10
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.94%E -3.60%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.26%E -1.45%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-23 15:30
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.94%E -3.60%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.26%E -1.45%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-23 15:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.94%E -3.60%K -9.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.41%E -2.46%K -4.51%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-23 15:30
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.65%E -4.73%K -12.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.41%E -2.46%K -4.51%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-23 12:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.62I 61.73%NM 56.91%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.09%8.5%2026-10-23 15:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 40.55%1.03I 97.09%NM 59.45%63.3%2026-10-23 14:44
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 40.55%1.03I 97.09%NM 59.45%63.3%2026-10-23 14:31

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.77%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.00%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.24%2.5%2026-10-23 09:31
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.77%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.00%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.24%2.5%2026-10-23 09:31
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.77%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.00%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.24%2.5%2026-10-23 09:31
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.73%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.31%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.96%3.0%2026-10-23 13:14
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.18%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.11%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%5.4%2026-10-23 15:25
1xBet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.03%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.01%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%6.3%2026-10-23 15:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.71%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.82%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%6.5%2026-10-23 09:30
Grosvenor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.71%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.82%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%6.5%2026-10-23 09:31
Unibet (NL)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.71%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.82%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%6.5%2026-10-23 09:30
Casumo🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.71%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.82%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%6.5%2026-10-23 09:31
Tipico (DE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.72%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.60%8.7%2026-10-23 14:43
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.13%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.74%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%10.5%2026-10-23 15:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.16%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.69%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.16%10.7%2026-10-23 15:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.64%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.05%10.9%2026-10-23 15:28
Unibet (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 44.30%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.58%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.12%15.2%2026-10-23 15:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 44.59%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.04%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.38%15.6%2026-10-23 15:25