The School of Odds
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Kiekko-Espoo v HIFK

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kiekko-Espoo (Local)

Prediction 36.62%2.73fair odd
EV -1.12%
Edge -0.416%
Kelly -0.661%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.87%36.60%36.62%37.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.562.552.7043.48%39.11%39.22%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HIFK (Visit)

Prediction 39.63%2.52fair odd
EV +1.85%
Edge +0.718%
Kelly +1.18%
Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 2.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.74%39.42%39.63%40.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.362.402.5746.51%42.34%41.67%38.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.75%4.21fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -0.640%
Kelly -0.846%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.72%23.98%23.75%25.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.833.804.1028.57%26.11%26.32%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kiekko-Espoo (Local): 36.62%; HIFK (Visit): 39.63%; Draw: 23.75%. For HIFK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.52. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.57, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.85%.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 36.74%EV -3.32%E -1.26%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.74%EV +1.85%E +0.718%K +1.18%G +0.022%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.52%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-21 06:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.96%EV -1.12%E -0.416%K -0.661%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.15%EV -1.72%E -0.694%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.89%EV -7.37%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-21 11:29
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.96%EV -1.12%E -0.416%K -0.661%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.15%EV -1.72%E -0.694%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.89%EV -7.37%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-21 11:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.96%EV -1.12%E -0.416%K -0.661%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.15%EV -1.72%E -0.694%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.89%EV -7.37%E -1.89%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.0%2026-02-21 11:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.25%EV -6.62%E -2.59%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.58%EV -4.89%E -2.04%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.17%EV -2.62%E -0.640%K -0.846%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-21 07:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.87%EV -3.69%E -1.40%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.31%EV -4.89%E -2.04%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 11:29
Casumo🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.87%EV -3.69%E -1.40%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.31%EV -4.89%E -2.04%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 11:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.87%EV -3.69%E -1.40%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.31%EV -4.89%E -2.04%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 11:30
Grosvenor🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.87%EV -3.69%E -1.40%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.31%EV -4.89%E -2.04%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.82%EV -9.75%E -2.57%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 11:30
1xBet🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 37.08%EV -7.35%E -2.90%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.75%EV -6.48%E -2.74%K -4.76%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.16%EV -3.81%E -0.941%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-21 13:30
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.92%EV -6.62%E -2.59%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.32%EV -7.67%E -3.29%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -12.12%E -3.28%K -4.49%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-21 11:29
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.32%EV -8.45%E -3.38%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.85%E -3.85%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -10.94%E -2.92%K -3.98%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-21 07:00
Everygame🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.95%EV -8.45%E -3.38%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -8.85%E -3.85%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -14.50%E -4.03%K -5.58%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-21 12:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%EV -6.62%E -2.59%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.90%EV -10.84%E -4.82%K -8.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.01%EV -5.00%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-21 13:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.39%EV -12.11%E -5.05%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -10.84%E -4.82%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.72%EV -6.19%E -1.57%K -2.10%G +0.000%11.4%2026-02-21 07:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 36.70%EV -14.67%E -6.30%K -11.03%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.87%EV -12.82%E -5.83%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.43%EV -16.87%E -4.82%K -6.75%G +0.000%16.9%2026-02-21 13:53
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.27%EV -15.77%E -6.86%K -12.13%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.87%EV -14.80%E -6.88%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.86%EV -10.94%E -2.92%K -3.98%G +0.000%16.7%2026-02-21 06:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.86%1.93I 51.81%NM 51.14%1.3%2026-02-21 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.86%1.93I 51.81%NM 51.14%1.3%2026-02-21 13:50
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%4.6%2026-02-21 06:59
DraftKings🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%4.7%2026-02-21 09:20
NordicBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%5.1%2026-02-21 10:05
Betsson🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%5.2%2026-02-21 13:00
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-02-20 05:40
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-02-20 05:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-02-20 07:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-02-20 07:10
BetRivers🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%5.7%2026-02-21 11:30
betPARX🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%5.7%2026-02-21 11:30
Bally Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%5.7%2026-02-21 11:29
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%7.0%2026-02-21 10:08
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%7.0%2026-02-21 07:00
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%7.9%2026-02-21 06:59
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%7.9%2026-02-20 15:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%7.9%2026-02-20 15:00
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%7.9%2026-02-20 15:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%7.9%2026-02-20 15:01
Smarkets◎1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%8.2%2026-02-21 12:20