The School of Odds
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Kiekko-Espoo v Ässät

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kiekko-Espoo (Local)

Prediction 62.46%1.60fair odd
EV +3.05%
Edge +1.85%
Kelly +4.70%
Growth +0.143%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.23%61.96%62.56%63.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.521.521.6567.57%65.76%65.79%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ässät (Visit)

Prediction 37.54%2.66fair odd
EV -1.26%
Edge -0.479%
Kelly -0.773%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.32%38.04%37.44%41.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.522.502.6343.48%39.67%40.00%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kiekko-Espoo (Local): 62.46%; Ässät (Visit): 37.54%. For Kiekko-Espoo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.60. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.05%.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV +3.05%E +1.85%K +4.70%G +0.143%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -13.65%E -5.93%K -10.50%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-21 10:10
theScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -1.94%E -1.24%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -6.14%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-21 12:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -2.57%E -1.65%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -9.90%E -4.12%K -7.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-21 12:05
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.44%E -2.90%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.14%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 12:05
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.44%E -2.90%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.14%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 13:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.44%E -2.90%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.14%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 12:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.44%E -2.90%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.14%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 12:05
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.29%EV -5.07%E -3.33%K -9.74%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.71%EV -1.64%E -0.624%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-21 13:00
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.29%EV -5.07%E -3.33%K -9.74%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.71%EV -1.64%E -0.624%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-21 13:00
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.08%EV -5.69%E -3.77%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%EV -3.14%E -1.22%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-21 14:49
BetRivers🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -6.32%E -4.21%K -12.63%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -1.26%E -0.479%K -0.773%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-21 13:35
Bally Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -6.94%E -4.66%K -14.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -2.39%E -0.918%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-21 13:35
betPARX🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -6.94%E -4.66%K -14.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -2.39%E -0.918%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-21 13:35
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.56%E -5.11%K -15.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.14%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-21 10:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.56%E -5.11%K -15.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.14%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-21 10:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.56%E -5.11%K -15.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.14%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-21 10:14
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.56%E -5.11%K -15.76%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.14%E -2.46%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-21 10:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 62.09%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91%0.7%2026-03-21 14:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 62.09%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91%0.7%2026-03-21 14:55
Smarkets◎1.53I 65.36%NM 60.67%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.33%7.7%2026-03-21 14:54

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.26%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.87%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.87%3.1%2026-03-21 13:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.94%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.15%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.90%3.3%2026-03-21 13:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.94%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.15%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.90%3.3%2026-03-21 13:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.94%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.15%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.90%3.3%2026-03-21 13:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.45%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.27%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.28%4.8%2026-03-21 12:05
1xBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.59%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.70%6.1%2026-03-21 14:49
Grosvenor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%6.5%2026-03-21 13:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%6.5%2026-03-21 13:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%6.5%2026-03-21 13:35
Casumo🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%6.5%2026-03-21 13:35
LeoVegas🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.96%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%9.2%2026-03-21 13:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.21%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.86%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.92%10.4%2026-03-21 12:05
Betway🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.42%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.14%10.4%2026-03-21 12:05
Everygame🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.21%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.05%10.9%2026-03-21 14:49
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.96%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%11.6%2026-03-21 12:05
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.28%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.59%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.14%15.1%2026-03-21 14:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 48.43%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.27%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.30%16.0%2026-03-21 12:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 48.23%3.08I 32.47%NM 27.72%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.05%17.1%2026-03-21 14:34