The School of Odds
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Kärpät v Tappara

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kärpät (Local)

Prediction 33.87%2.95fair odd
EV -1.11%
Edge -0.378%
Kelly -0.576%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.41%33.93%34.12%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.762.752.9238.17%36.27%36.36%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tappara (Visit)

Prediction 66.13%1.51fair odd
EV -0.802%
Edge -0.535%
Kelly -1.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.29%66.07%65.88%67.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.441.441.5071.43%69.47%69.44%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kärpät (Local): 33.87%; Tappara (Visit): 66.13%. For Tappara (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.51. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.50, with an expected value of -0.802%; they did not produce positive expected value.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.41%EV -1.11%E -0.378%K -0.576%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.59%EV -7.42%E -5.30%K -18.54%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-28 10:55
BetRivers🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -1.78%E -0.615%K -0.938%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -6.09%E -4.29%K -14.51%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-28 10:25
Bally Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -1.78%E -0.615%K -0.938%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -6.09%E -4.29%K -14.51%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-28 10:25
betPARX🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -1.78%E -0.615%K -0.938%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -6.09%E -4.29%K -14.51%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-28 10:25
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -5.17%E -1.85%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -3.45%E -2.36%K -7.49%G +0.000%4.2%2026-02-28 10:45
Betsson🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.17%E -1.85%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.77%E -3.31%K -10.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-28 11:20
NordicBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.17%E -1.85%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.77%E -3.31%K -10.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-28 11:20
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.86%E -2.50%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.77%E -3.31%K -10.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-28 10:45
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.86%E -2.50%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.77%E -3.31%K -10.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-28 11:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.86%E -2.50%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.77%E -3.31%K -10.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-28 10:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.86%E -2.50%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.77%E -3.31%K -10.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-28 10:55
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -8.56%E -3.17%K -5.03%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -0.802%E -0.535%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.7%2026-02-28 10:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -10.25%E -3.87%K -6.21%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -4.11%E -2.83%K -9.13%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-28 10:54
Neds🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -10.93%E -4.15%K -6.70%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -4.77%E -3.31%K -10.84%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-28 10:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -10.93%E -4.15%K -6.70%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -4.77%E -3.31%K -10.84%G +0.000%7.5%2026-02-28 10:45
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -11.27%E -4.30%K -6.95%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -4.77%E -3.31%K -10.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-28 10:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -11.27%E -4.30%K -6.95%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -4.77%E -3.31%K -10.84%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-28 10:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%4.0%2026-02-28 15:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.98I 33.56%NM 31.02%1.34I 74.63%NM 68.98%8.2%2026-02-28 15:45

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 23.39%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.54%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.06%3.0%2026-02-28 10:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.48%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.55%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.97%3.5%2026-02-28 10:25
Svenska Spel🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.48%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.55%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.97%3.5%2026-02-28 10:25
ATG (SE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.48%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.55%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.97%3.5%2026-02-28 10:26
Unibet (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.13%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.22%4.7%2026-02-28 10:45
1xBet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.01%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.23%6.3%2026-02-28 11:20
Casumo🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%6.6%2026-02-28 10:25
Grosvenor🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%6.6%2026-02-28 10:25
Unibet (NL)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%6.6%2026-02-28 10:26
Unibet (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.84%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%6.6%2026-02-28 10:25
Tipico (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%8.9%2026-02-28 10:45
LeoVegas🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.34%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.85%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.81%9.2%2026-02-28 10:25
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.88%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.28%10.6%2026-02-28 10:44
Winamax (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%1.68I 59.52%NM 53.71%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%10.8%2026-02-28 10:45
Paddy Power🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%11.5%2026-02-28 10:42
Winamax (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.20%1.64I 60.98%NM 52.72%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.09%15.7%2026-02-28 10:44
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 25.70%1.64I 60.98%NM 52.50%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.80%16.1%2026-02-28 15:45
Betclic (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 25.88%1.63I 61.35%NM 52.39%3.93I 25.45%NM 21.73%17.1%2026-02-28 15:35