The School of Odds
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Kärpät v KooKoo

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kärpät (Local)

Prediction 65.61%1.52fair odd
EV -0.930%
Edge -0.616%
Kelly -1.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.61%65.59%65.32%67.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.431.421.5171.43%69.75%70.18%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

KooKoo (Visit)

Prediction 34.39%2.91fair odd
EV +1.45%
Edge +0.492%
Kelly +0.745%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.49%34.41%34.68%36.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.642.772.752.9537.88%36.06%36.36%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kärpät (Local): 65.61%; KooKoo (Visit): 34.39%. For KooKoo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.91. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.45%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -6.83%E -4.81%K -16.27%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV +1.45%E +0.492%K +0.745%G +0.011%4.3%2026-10-17 09:44
NordicBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.28%EV -6.18%E -4.32%K -14.37%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.72%EV +1.11%E +0.377%K +0.571%G +0.006%3.9%2026-10-17 09:45
BetRivers🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -6.83%E -4.81%K -16.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -0.267%E -0.092%K -0.141%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-17 09:45
betPARX🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -6.83%E -4.81%K -16.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -0.267%E -0.092%K -0.141%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-17 09:44
Bally Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -6.83%E -4.81%K -16.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -0.267%E -0.092%K -0.141%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-17 09:45
theScore Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -2.90%E -1.96%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -5.43%E -1.97%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-17 13:00
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.52%E -3.84%K -12.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.43%E -1.97%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-16 20:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.52%E -3.84%K -12.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.43%E -1.97%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-16 20:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.52%E -3.84%K -12.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.43%E -1.97%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-16 20:49
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.15%E -5.82%K -20.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.15%E -2.65%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-17 05:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.15%E -5.82%K -20.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.15%E -2.65%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-17 05:04
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.15%E -5.82%K -20.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.15%E -2.65%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-17 05:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.15%E -5.82%K -20.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.15%E -2.65%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-17 05:05
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.66%EV -3.55%E -2.42%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.34%EV -7.49%E -2.78%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-17 13:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -4.87%E -3.36%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -8.86%E -3.35%K -5.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-17 07:59
DraftKings🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -0.930%E -0.616%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -9.21%E -3.49%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-17 13:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.43I 69.93%NM 64.69%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.31%8.1%2026-10-17 13:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%8.5%2026-10-17 13:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%8.5%2026-10-17 13:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.74%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.05%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.21%3.1%2026-10-17 09:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.38%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54%3.2%2026-10-17 09:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.38%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54%3.2%2026-10-17 09:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.38%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54%3.2%2026-10-17 09:44
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.52%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%5.9%2026-10-17 09:45
Casumo🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.52%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%5.9%2026-10-17 09:45
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.52%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%5.9%2026-10-17 09:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.52%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%5.9%2026-10-17 09:44
1xBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.43%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.90%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.67%6.3%2026-10-17 13:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.68%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.60%6.4%2026-10-17 07:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.92%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.05%8.0%2026-10-17 08:00
Betway🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.81%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.54%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.65%8.7%2026-10-17 05:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.09%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.49%10.8%2026-10-17 07:59
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%12.7%2026-10-17 07:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 52.34%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.27%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.39%13.1%2026-10-17 13:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 52.64%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.77%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.58%15.8%2026-10-17 08:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 51.85%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.45%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.70%19.1%2026-10-17 13:50