The School of Odds
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Kärpät v Kiekko-Espoo

2026-10-07 15:30 UTC — Liiga

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kärpät (Local)

Prediction 43.00%2.33fair odd
EV -5.40%
Edge -2.46%
Kelly -4.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.35%43.00%43.00%43.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.072.082.2051.28%48.19%48.19%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kiekko-Espoo (Visit)

Prediction 33.74%2.96fair odd
EV -5.53%
Edge -1.98%
Kelly -3.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.64%33.74%33.74%34.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.642.672.8040.82%37.93%37.52%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.26%4.30fair odd
EV -4.62%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.42%23.26%23.26%23.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.843.924.1028.99%26.03%25.48%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Kärpät (Local): 43.00%; Kiekko-Espoo (Visit): 33.74%; Draw: 23.26%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.30. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.10, with an expected value of -4.62%; they do not produce positive expected value.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.06%EV -5.40%E -2.46%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.83%EV -5.53%E -1.98%K -3.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.11%EV -4.62%E -1.13%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-04 03:19
1xBet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.00%EV -5.83%E -2.66%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 33.75%EV -5.87%E -2.10%K -3.28%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.25%EV -5.79%E -1.43%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-04 03:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.94%EV -9.70%E -4.62%K -8.82%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 33.64%EV -9.58%E -3.57%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.42%EV -10.44%E -2.71%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-04 03:23
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -11.85%E -5.78%K -11.29%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.84%EV -10.59%E -4.00%K -6.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.42%EV -6.95%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-04 03:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 42.65%EV -15.72%E -8.02%K -16.38%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 34.12%EV -17.34%E -7.08%K -11.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.22%EV -16.25%E -4.52%K -6.25%G +0.000%19.6%2026-10-04 03:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 42.35%EV -16.15%E -8.28%K -17.00%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 33.71%EV -17.34%E -7.08%K -11.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 23.94%EV -19.74%E -5.72%K -8.06%G +0.000%21.1%2026-10-04 03:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%6.1%2026-10-04 03:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%6.1%2026-10-04 03:20
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-10-04 03:23