The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Kärpät v Kiekko-Espoo

Kickoff: 2026-10-07 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kärpät (Local)

Prediction 41.10%2.43fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -0.913%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.40%41.19%41.10%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.202.192.3848.78%45.53%45.66%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kiekko-Espoo (Visit)

Prediction 34.23%2.92fair odd
EV +4.40%
Edge +1.44%
Kelly +2.15%
Growth +0.094%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.77%34.09%34.23%34.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.802.833.0541.67%35.71%35.40%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.67%4.05fair odd
EV -1.82%
Edge -0.458%
Kelly -0.612%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.62%24.72%24.67%25.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.733.753.9830.30%26.77%26.67%25.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kärpät (Local): 41.10%; Kiekko-Espoo (Visit): 34.23%; Draw: 24.67%. For Kiekko-Espoo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.92. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.40%.

15 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.06%EV -7.52%E -3.34%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV +4.40%E +1.44%K +2.15%G +0.094%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.17%EV -5.03%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-04 19:34
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.06%EV -7.52%E -3.34%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV +4.40%E +1.44%K +2.15%G +0.094%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.17%EV -5.03%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-04 19:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.06%EV -7.52%E -3.34%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV +4.40%E +1.44%K +2.15%G +0.094%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.17%EV -5.03%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-04 19:34
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.10%EV -10.39%E -4.77%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV +0.976%E +0.331%K +0.500%G +0.005%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -7.50%E -2.00%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-04 19:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.10%EV -10.39%E -4.77%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV +0.976%E +0.331%K +0.500%G +0.005%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -7.50%E -2.00%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-04 19:34
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.10%EV -10.39%E -4.77%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV +0.976%E +0.331%K +0.500%G +0.005%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -7.50%E -2.00%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-04 19:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.10%EV -10.39%E -4.77%K -8.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV +0.976%E +0.331%K +0.500%G +0.005%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -7.50%E -2.00%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-04 19:34
Coolbet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.76%EV -2.17%E -0.913%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.04%EV -2.45%E -0.859%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20%EV -5.03%E -1.31%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-04 15:19
PMU (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.06%EV -14.92%E -7.21%K -13.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -4.16%E -1.49%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.11%EV -12.43%E -3.50%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-04 19:34
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.22%EV -5.46%E -2.37%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.47%EV -5.87%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -3.80%E -0.974%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-04 19:24
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.76%EV -9.57%E -4.35%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -5.87%E -2.13%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -8.73%E -2.36%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-04 19:30
1xBet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.42%EV -6.69%E -2.95%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.95%EV -7.92%E -2.95%K -4.69%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.62%EV -1.82%E -0.458%K -0.612%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-05 08:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.03%EV -9.57%E -4.35%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.45%EV -10.32%E -3.94%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.53%EV -9.22%E -2.51%K -3.44%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-04 19:24
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -11.63%E -5.41%K -10.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.56%EV -11.00%E -4.23%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -6.26%E -1.65%K -2.24%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-04 19:24
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 40.84%EV -15.74%E -7.68%K -14.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 34.89%EV -17.85%E -7.44%K -12.75%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.27%EV -14.90%E -4.32%K -6.08%G +0.000%19.4%2026-10-04 19:24
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 40.40%EV -15.74%E -7.68%K -14.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 34.51%EV -17.85%E -7.44%K -12.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.10%EV -18.60%E -5.64%K -8.09%G +0.000%20.8%2026-10-04 19:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (15)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.73%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.27%4.2%2026-10-05 10:25
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%4.6%2026-10-04 20:10
Betsson🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%5.1%2026-10-05 10:25
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-10-04 19:35
Bally Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-10-04 19:35
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-10-04 19:35
Pinnacle🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%5.6%2026-10-04 18:20
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%6.5%2026-10-04 19:24
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%6.5%2026-10-04 19:25
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-10-04 18:09
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-10-04 16:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-10-04 16:30
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-10-04 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%7.6%2026-10-04 16:30
Smarkets◎1.70I 58.82%NM 53.30%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.70%10.4%2026-10-04 19:25