The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Kärpät v KalPa

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kärpät (Local)

Prediction 59.72%1.67fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -0.884%
Kelly -2.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.23%59.59%59.65%60.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.581.571.6565.36%63.48%63.69%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

KalPa (Visit)

Prediction 40.28%2.48fair odd
EV -3.73%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -2.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.23%40.41%40.35%41.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.362.372.3944.44%42.42%42.19%41.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kärpät (Local): 59.72%; KalPa (Visit): 40.28%. For Kärpät (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.67. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.65, with an expected value of -1.46%; they did not produce positive expected value.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -1.46%E -0.884%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -7.36%E -3.20%K -5.66%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-24 13:10
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.85%E -2.39%K -6.31%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.35%E -2.27%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-24 09:14
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.90%EV -4.45%E -2.78%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 40.10%EV -3.73%E -1.56%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-24 10:15
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.45%E -2.78%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.35%E -2.27%K -3.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-24 13:55
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.64%E -3.57%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -5.35%E -2.27%K -3.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-24 10:13
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.24%E -3.97%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.14%E -1.74%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-24 09:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.24%E -3.97%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.14%E -1.74%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-24 09:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.24%E -3.97%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.14%E -1.74%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-24 09:14
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.24%E -3.97%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.35%E -2.27%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-24 09:15
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.24%E -3.97%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -9.37%E -4.17%K -7.50%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-24 09:14
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -6.83%E -4.38%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -4.14%E -1.74%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 09:25
Bally Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -6.83%E -4.38%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -4.14%E -1.74%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 09:25
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -6.83%E -4.38%K -12.20%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -4.14%E -1.74%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 09:25
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -8.63%E -5.64%K -16.28%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -4.54%E -1.92%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-21 09:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -8.63%E -5.64%K -16.28%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -4.54%E -1.92%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-21 09:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 62.31%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%7.0%2026-10-24 13:55
Smarkets◎1.55I 64.52%NM 59.53%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.47%8.4%2026-10-24 09:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 40.24%1.01I 99.01%NM 59.76%65.7%2026-10-24 13:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.59%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.27%3.0%2026-10-24 09:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.59%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.27%3.0%2026-10-24 09:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.59%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.27%3.0%2026-10-24 09:25
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.09%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.27%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.64%3.2%2026-10-24 09:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.80%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.12%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%5.7%2026-10-24 09:14
1xBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.01%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.31%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.67%6.3%2026-10-24 11:35
Casumo🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.90%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%6.5%2026-10-24 09:25
Grosvenor🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.90%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%6.5%2026-10-24 09:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.90%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%6.5%2026-10-24 09:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.90%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.03%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%6.5%2026-10-24 09:25
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%7.5%2026-10-24 09:14
Tipico (DE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%8.8%2026-10-24 09:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.67%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.69%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%10.4%2026-10-24 09:14
Betclic (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.08%3.02I 33.11%NM 29.31%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.60%13.0%2026-10-24 13:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 47.33%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.70%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.97%16.1%2026-10-24 09:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 46.74%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.50%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.76%16.9%2026-10-24 13:49