The School of Odds
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Kärpät v Ilves

Kickoff: 2026-09-16 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kärpät (Local)

Prediction 37.59%2.66fair odd
EV -1.14%
Edge -0.435%
Kelly -0.702%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.87%37.69%37.46%38.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.482.502.6343.48%40.24%40.00%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ilves (Visit)

Prediction 38.60%2.59fair odd
EV +2.29%
Edge +0.865%
Kelly +1.39%
Growth +0.032%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.62%38.50%38.82%40.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.412.402.6545.45%41.54%41.67%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.81%4.20fair odd
EV -2.37%
Edge -0.579%
Kelly -0.766%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.87%23.81%23.73%24.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.843.804.1027.78%26.02%26.32%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kärpät (Local): 37.59%; Ilves (Visit): 38.60%; Draw: 23.81%. For Ilves (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.59. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.29%.

14 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.82%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.62%EV +2.29%E +0.865%K +1.39%G +0.032%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.57%EV -5.95%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-15 07:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.96%EV -1.14%E -0.435%K -0.702%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.12%EV -1.57%E -0.615%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.92%EV -7.14%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-16 15:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.96%EV -1.14%E -0.435%K -0.702%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.12%EV -1.57%E -0.615%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.92%EV -7.14%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-16 15:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.96%EV -1.14%E -0.435%K -0.702%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.12%EV -1.57%E -0.615%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.92%EV -7.14%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-16 15:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.05%EV -4.15%E -1.63%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.09%EV -4.27%E -1.72%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -9.52%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-16 15:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.05%EV -4.15%E -1.63%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.09%EV -4.27%E -1.72%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -9.52%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-16 15:10
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.05%EV -4.15%E -1.63%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.09%EV -4.27%E -1.72%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -9.52%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-16 15:10
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.05%EV -4.15%E -1.63%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.09%EV -4.27%E -1.72%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -9.52%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-16 15:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.06%EV -7.36%E -3.07%K -5.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-16 15:05
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.88%EV -9.79%E -4.08%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.88%EV -7.36%E -3.07%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -10.71%E -2.86%K -3.89%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-16 13:05
1xBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.22%EV -5.28%E -2.09%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.91%EV -9.29%E -3.95%K -6.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -2.37%E -0.579%K -0.766%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-16 15:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.08%EV -9.79%E -4.08%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.20%EV -10.06%E -4.32%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.72%EV -14.28%E -3.97%K -5.49%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-16 15:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87%EV -6.03%E -2.41%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.08%EV -11.22%E -4.88%K -8.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -4.75%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-16 15:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.72%EV -9.79%E -4.08%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -11.22%E -4.88%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.92%EV -5.95%E -1.51%K -2.02%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-16 15:10
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.27%EV -9.79%E -4.08%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.89%EV -11.22%E -4.88%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%EV -10.71%E -2.86%K -3.89%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-16 15:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.39%EV -10.92%E -4.61%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 38.86%EV -11.99%E -5.26%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 23.75%EV -11.18%E -3.00%K -4.10%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-16 15:09
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.32%EV -11.67%E -4.97%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.98%EV -13.15%E -5.84%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.70%EV -11.90%E -3.22%K -4.41%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-16 15:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.61%EV -13.55%E -5.89%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.32%EV -15.08%E -6.85%K -12.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.07%EV -10.71%E -2.86%K -3.89%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-16 15:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (14)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.91%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.09%3.9%2026-09-16 15:25
DraftKings🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%4.6%2026-09-16 15:15
Pinnacle🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%4.6%2026-09-16 15:15
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%4.7%2026-09-16 15:05
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%4.7%2026-09-16 13:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%4.7%2026-09-16 13:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%4.7%2026-09-16 13:05
BetRivers🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%5.3%2026-09-16 15:10
Bally Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%5.3%2026-09-16 15:10
betPARX🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%5.3%2026-09-16 15:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%7.0%2026-09-16 15:05
Smarkets◎1.87I 53.48%NM 49.32%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.68%8.4%2026-09-16 15:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%8.7%2026-09-15 07:30
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%8.7%2026-09-15 07:30