The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Kärpät v HPK

Kickoff: 2026-10-28 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kärpät (Local)

Prediction 65.25%1.53fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -1.87%
Kelly -5.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.44%65.43%65.23%67.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.431.441.4971.43%69.84%69.44%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HPK (Visit)

Prediction 34.75%2.88fair odd
EV +0.782%
Edge +0.270%
Kelly +0.412%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.87%34.57%34.77%35.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.762.752.9037.04%36.17%36.36%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kärpät (Local): 65.25%; HPK (Visit): 34.75%. For HPK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.88. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.782%.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -7.35%E -5.17%K -17.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV +0.782%E +0.270%K +0.412%G +0.003%4.9%2026-10-28 13:09
Bally Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -7.35%E -5.17%K -17.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV +0.782%E +0.270%K +0.412%G +0.003%4.9%2026-10-28 13:10
betPARX🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -7.35%E -5.17%K -17.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV +0.782%E +0.270%K +0.412%G +0.003%4.9%2026-10-28 13:09
NordicBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.25%EV -4.09%E -2.78%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.75%EV -4.08%E -1.48%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-28 13:44
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.04%E -4.20%K -13.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.43%E -1.61%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-26 16:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.04%E -4.20%K -13.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.43%E -1.61%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-26 16:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.04%E -4.20%K -13.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.43%E -1.61%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-26 16:34
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.65%E -6.18%K -21.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -4.43%E -1.61%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-26 06:14
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.65%E -6.18%K -21.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -4.43%E -1.61%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-26 17:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.65%E -6.18%K -21.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -4.43%E -1.61%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-26 17:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.65%E -6.18%K -21.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -4.43%E -1.61%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-26 17:50
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.65%E -6.18%K -21.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -4.43%E -1.61%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-26 17:50
Pinnacle🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.39%EV -5.39%E -3.72%K -11.98%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.61%EV -4.78%E -1.74%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-28 15:00
DraftKings🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -2.78%E -1.87%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -6.17%E -2.28%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-28 13:45
Betsson🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -4.74%E -3.25%K -10.30%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -6.17%E -2.28%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-28 13:45
theScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.39%E -3.72%K -11.98%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.17%E -2.28%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-26 06:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.04%E -4.20%K -13.74%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.17%E -2.28%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-26 06:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 63.24%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.76%5.4%2026-10-28 16:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 63.24%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.76%5.4%2026-10-28 16:25
Smarkets◎1.43I 69.93%NM 64.69%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.31%8.1%2026-10-28 04:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.42%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.15%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.43%2.9%2026-10-28 12:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.41%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.29%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.29%3.1%2026-10-28 13:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.41%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.29%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.29%3.1%2026-10-28 13:09
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.41%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.29%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.29%3.1%2026-10-28 13:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.19%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.54%5.6%2026-10-26 06:15
1xBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.57%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.29%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.14%6.3%2026-10-28 15:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%6.4%2026-10-28 13:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%6.4%2026-10-28 13:10
Casumo🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%6.4%2026-10-28 13:10
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.23%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%8.2%2026-10-28 00:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.04%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%8.9%2026-10-28 03:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.18%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.05%10.6%2026-10-26 06:15
Grosvenor🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 55.10%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.45%11.3%2026-10-28 13:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.48%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.26%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.26%12.9%2026-10-28 16:08
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 52.00%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.21%3.65I 27.40%NM 22.79%20.2%2026-10-26 06:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 51.12%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.17%3.45I 28.99%NM 23.71%22.3%2026-10-28 16:19