The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

KalPa v Tappara

Kickoff: 2026-02-27 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

KalPa (Local)

Prediction 31.75%3.15fair odd
EV -1.58%
Edge -0.511%
Kelly -0.755%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.49%31.96%31.64%34.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.912.903.1037.04%34.31%34.48%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tappara (Visit)

Prediction 68.25%1.47fair odd
EV -0.350%
Edge -0.240%
Kelly -0.762%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.73%68.04%68.36%69.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.391.401.4673.53%71.97%71.43%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: KalPa (Local): 31.75%; Tappara (Visit): 68.25%. For Tappara (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.47. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.46, with an expected value of -0.350%; they did not produce positive expected value.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -1.58%E -0.511%K -0.755%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.18%E -5.28%K -19.93%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-27 12:35
betPARX🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -1.58%E -0.511%K -0.755%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.18%E -5.28%K -19.93%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-27 12:35
Bally Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -1.58%E -0.511%K -0.755%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.18%E -5.28%K -19.93%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-27 12:34
Pinnacle🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.17%E -1.04%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.81%E -4.21%K -15.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-27 16:15
Betsson🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.17%E -1.04%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.81%E -4.21%K -15.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-27 11:00
NordicBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.17%E -1.04%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.81%E -4.21%K -15.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-27 11:00
theScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -4.76%E -1.59%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.08%E -2.17%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.8%2026-02-27 15:04
Bovada🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.76%E -1.59%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.18%E -5.28%K -19.93%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-27 16:54
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.93%E -2.74%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.45%E -3.18%K -11.11%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-27 12:34
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.93%E -2.74%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.45%E -3.18%K -11.11%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-27 11:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.93%E -2.74%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.45%E -3.18%K -11.11%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-27 12:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.93%E -2.74%K -4.18%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.45%E -3.18%K -11.11%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-27 12:00
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -8.57%E -2.98%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.18%E -5.28%K -19.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-02-27 10:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -9.52%E -3.34%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -5.81%E -4.21%K -15.29%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-27 15:04
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -11.11%E -3.97%K -6.17%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -0.350%E -0.240%K -0.762%G +0.000%4.2%2026-02-27 16:14
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -14.28%E -5.29%K -8.40%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -4.45%E -3.18%K -11.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-25 09:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -14.28%E -5.29%K -8.40%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -4.45%E -3.18%K -11.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-25 09:35
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -14.28%E -5.29%K -8.40%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -4.45%E -3.18%K -11.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-25 09:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -14.28%E -5.29%K -8.40%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -4.45%E -3.18%K -11.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-25 09:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%5.8%2026-02-27 16:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.68%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.19%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.13%2.9%2026-02-27 12:34
Svenska Spel🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.68%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.19%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.13%2.9%2026-02-27 12:35
ATG (SE)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.68%1.67I 59.88%NM 58.19%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.13%2.9%2026-02-27 12:34
Coolbet🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.65%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.78%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.57%3.0%2026-02-27 10:45
Unibet (UK)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.38%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.95%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%5.1%2026-02-27 15:04
1xBet🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 23.23%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.33%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.45%6.3%2026-02-27 16:14
Unibet (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.86%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%6.7%2026-02-27 12:34
Unibet (NL)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.86%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%6.7%2026-02-27 12:35
Grosvenor🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.86%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%6.7%2026-02-27 12:34
Casumo🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.86%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%6.7%2026-02-27 12:35
Tipico (DE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.55%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.56%8.8%2026-02-27 16:34
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.87%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.81%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.33%9.3%2026-02-27 15:04
LeoVegas🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.77%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.22%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.01%9.4%2026-02-27 12:34
Winamax (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.23%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.63%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%10.4%2026-02-27 15:05
Everygame🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.43%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.02%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%10.9%2026-02-27 16:15
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.18%1.57I 63.69%NM 55.36%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.46%15.1%2026-02-27 15:05
Betclic (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.18%1.57I 63.69%NM 55.36%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.46%15.1%2026-02-27 15:03
Winamax (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 23.59%1.54I 64.94%NM 55.91%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.50%16.1%2026-02-27 15:05