The School of Odds
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KalPa v Sport

Kickoff: 2026-10-27 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

KalPa (Local)

Prediction 61.25%1.63fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -3.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.89%61.22%61.25%62.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.571.571.6065.79%63.80%63.69%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sport (Visit)

Prediction 38.75%2.58fair odd
EV -1.19%
Edge -0.467%
Kelly -0.768%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.35%38.78%38.75%42.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.382.382.5545.45%42.05%42.02%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: KalPa (Local): 61.25%; Sport (Visit): 38.75%. For Sport (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.58. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.55, with an expected value of -1.19%; they did not produce positive expected value.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -2.00%E -1.25%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -14.75%E -6.71%K -12.29%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-25 10:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -2.00%E -1.25%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -14.75%E -6.71%K -12.29%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-25 10:35
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -2.00%E -1.25%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -14.75%E -6.71%K -12.29%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-26 08:17
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -2.00%E -1.25%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -14.75%E -6.71%K -12.29%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-26 08:25
theScore Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -2.61%E -1.64%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -8.94%E -3.80%K -6.62%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-27 03:00
NordicBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.04%EV -3.84%E -2.44%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.96%EV -4.68%E -1.90%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-27 16:10
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.84%E -2.44%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.78%E -3.27%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-26 10:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.84%E -2.44%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.78%E -3.27%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-26 10:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.84%E -2.44%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -7.78%E -3.27%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-26 10:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -3.84%E -2.44%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -8.94%E -3.80%K -6.62%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-27 03:00
Betsson🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -4.45%E -2.85%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -6.23%E -2.57%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-27 16:10
DraftKings🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -5.67%E -3.68%K -10.51%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -1.58%E -0.621%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-27 15:30
BetRivers🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.67%E -3.68%K -10.51%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -3.90%E -1.57%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-27 10:41
betPARX🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.67%E -3.68%K -10.51%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -3.90%E -1.57%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-27 10:42
Bally Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.67%E -3.68%K -10.51%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -3.90%E -1.57%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-27 10:41
Pinnacle🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -6.90%E -4.54%K -13.27%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -1.19%E -0.467%K -0.768%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-27 15:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 62.00%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.00%6.1%2026-10-27 16:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 62.00%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.00%6.1%2026-10-27 16:15
Smarkets◎1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%8.0%2026-10-27 12:22

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 48.28%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.22%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-10-27 16:14
Svenska Spel🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.44%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.92%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.64%3.2%2026-10-27 10:41
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.44%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.92%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.64%3.2%2026-10-27 10:41
ATG (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.44%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.92%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.64%3.2%2026-10-27 10:41
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.73%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%5.8%2026-10-27 03:00
1xBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.07%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.52%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%6.2%2026-10-27 15:35
Casumo🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.09%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%6.7%2026-10-27 10:41
Unibet (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.09%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%6.7%2026-10-27 10:41
Unibet (NL)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.09%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.18%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%6.7%2026-10-27 10:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.47%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%8.6%2026-10-27 03:05
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%9.2%2026-10-27 06:29
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.62%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.18%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.20%10.5%2026-10-27 03:00
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.11%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%11.3%2026-10-27 10:41
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.05%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.99%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%11.3%2026-10-26 10:34
Betclic (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.31%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.90%13.1%2026-10-27 16:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 47.15%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.41%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.45%15.3%2026-10-27 03:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 46.82%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.04%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.14%16.7%2026-10-27 16:19