The School of Odds
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KalPa v SaiPa

Kickoff: 2026-10-02 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

KalPa (Local)

Prediction 52.29%1.91fair odd
EV -3.26%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -3.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.70%52.29%52.22%52.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.801.801.8557.14%55.61%55.56%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SaiPa (Visit)

Prediction 47.71%2.10fair odd
EV -3.63%
Edge -1.80%
Kelly -3.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.12%47.71%47.78%48.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.951.992.002.0251.28%50.36%50.00%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: KalPa (Local): 52.29%; SaiPa (Visit): 47.71%. For KalPa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.91. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.85, with an expected value of -3.26%; they did not produce positive expected value.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -5.54%E -2.80%K -5.65%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-02 10:49
NordicBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 52.08%EV -3.78%E -2.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.92%EV -4.59%E -2.29%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-02 15:20
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.30%E -2.35%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.59%E -2.29%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-02 10:55
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.30%E -2.35%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.59%E -2.29%K -4.59%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-02 15:20
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -4.83%E -2.65%K -5.88%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -5.54%E -2.80%K -5.65%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-02 15:20
BetRivers🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -5.87%E -3.26%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -3.63%E -1.80%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-02 10:25
betPARX🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -5.87%E -3.26%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -3.63%E -1.80%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-02 10:24
Bally Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -5.87%E -3.26%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -3.63%E -1.80%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-02 10:25
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.87%E -3.26%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.59%E -2.29%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-02 02:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.87%E -3.26%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.59%E -2.29%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-02 02:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.87%E -3.26%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.59%E -2.29%K -4.59%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-02 02:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.87%E -3.26%K -7.34%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.97%E -3.58%K -7.34%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-02 10:55
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -8.49%E -4.85%K -11.31%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -6.97%E -3.58%K -7.34%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-02 10:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -8.49%E -4.85%K -11.31%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -6.97%E -3.58%K -7.34%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-02 10:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -8.49%E -4.85%K -11.31%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -6.97%E -3.58%K -7.34%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-02 10:55
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -8.49%E -4.85%K -11.31%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -6.97%E -3.58%K -7.34%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-02 10:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.90I 52.63%NM 49.87%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.13%5.5%2026-10-02 15:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.90I 52.63%NM 49.87%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.13%5.5%2026-10-02 15:20
Smarkets◎1.78I 56.18%NM 51.89%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.11%8.3%2026-10-02 10:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.67%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.06%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.27%3.0%2026-10-02 09:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.55%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.61%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.84%3.2%2026-10-02 10:24
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.55%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.61%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.84%3.2%2026-10-02 10:24
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.55%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.61%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.84%3.2%2026-10-02 10:24
Casumo🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.72%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%5.8%2026-10-02 10:24
Unibet (NL)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.72%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%5.8%2026-10-02 10:24
Grosvenor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.72%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%5.8%2026-10-02 10:24
Unibet (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.72%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%5.8%2026-10-02 10:25
1xBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.78%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.35%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%6.6%2026-10-02 13:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.06%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%6.7%2026-10-02 10:53
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.09%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.74%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%8.9%2026-10-02 14:29
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%10.1%2026-10-02 02:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.08%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.80%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.12%10.9%2026-10-02 10:55
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.00%11.1%2026-10-02 10:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.72%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.37%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%11.9%2026-10-02 10:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 39.77%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.04%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.19%13.3%2026-10-02 15:09
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.06%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.65%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.28%16.1%2026-10-02 10:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 39.51%2.30I 43.48%NM 36.08%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.41%20.5%2026-10-02 10:55