The School of Odds
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KalPa v Pelicans

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

KalPa (Local)

Prediction 53.11%1.88fair odd
EV -0.685%
Edge -0.366%
Kelly -0.787%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.05%52.84%53.20%53.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.781.781.8757.80%56.20%56.18%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pelicans (Visit)

Prediction 46.89%2.13fair odd
EV -3.88%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -3.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.38%47.16%46.80%48.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.012.002.0551.28%49.63%50.00%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: KalPa (Local): 53.11%; Pelicans (Visit): 46.89%. For KalPa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.88. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.87, with an expected value of -0.685%; they did not produce positive expected value.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -0.685%E -0.366%K -0.787%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -8.56%E -4.39%K -9.01%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-17 13:55
NordicBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.11%EV -3.87%E -2.14%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.89%EV -3.88%E -1.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-17 13:50
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.40%E -2.45%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.88%E -1.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-17 13:00
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.40%E -2.45%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-16 19:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.40%E -2.45%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-16 19:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.40%E -2.45%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-16 19:59
Pinnacle🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -5.46%E -3.07%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -3.88%E -1.89%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-17 13:50
BetRivers🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.46%E -3.07%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.34%E -2.13%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-17 09:35
betPARX🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.46%E -3.07%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.34%E -2.13%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-17 09:35
Bally Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.46%E -3.07%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.34%E -2.13%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-17 09:35
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -5.46%E -3.07%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -5.28%E -2.61%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-17 13:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.00%E -3.39%K -7.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-17 10:20
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.12%E -4.69%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 05:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.12%E -4.69%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 05:00
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.12%E -4.69%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 05:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.12%E -4.69%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.22%E -3.11%K -6.22%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 05:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.93%5.7%2026-10-17 13:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%2.06I 48.54%NM 45.93%5.7%2026-10-17 13:50
Smarkets◎1.74I 57.47%NM 53.10%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.90%8.2%2026-10-17 10:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.77%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.66%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.57%3.0%2026-10-17 09:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.77%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.66%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.57%3.0%2026-10-17 09:44
Svenska Spel🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.77%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.66%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.57%3.0%2026-10-17 09:45
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.16%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.32%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.52%3.1%2026-10-17 10:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.64%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.07%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.28%5.6%2026-10-17 10:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.83%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%6.5%2026-10-17 09:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.83%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%6.5%2026-10-17 09:35
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.83%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%6.5%2026-10-17 09:34
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.83%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%6.5%2026-10-17 09:35
1xBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.08%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.21%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.71%6.8%2026-10-17 13:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.76%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%8.8%2026-10-17 10:20
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.34%9.6%2026-10-17 10:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.96%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.33%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.71%11.0%2026-10-17 10:20
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.43%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%11.7%2026-10-17 10:19
Betclic (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 39.90%2.52I 39.68%NM 35.15%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.95%12.9%2026-10-17 13:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.98%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.12%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.90%16.2%2026-10-17 10:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.12%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.10%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.78%18.7%2026-10-17 13:50