The School of Odds
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KalPa v Lukko

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

KalPa (Local)

Prediction 51.90%1.93fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -3.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.05%51.88%51.90%53.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.811.801.8757.80%55.14%55.56%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lukko (Visit)

Prediction 48.10%2.08fair odd
EV -3.80%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -3.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.38%48.12%48.10%48.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.971.982.0052.36%50.84%50.51%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: KalPa (Local): 51.90%; Lukko (Visit): 48.10%. For KalPa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.93. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.87, with an expected value of -2.95%; they did not produce positive expected value.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.43%EV -2.95%E -1.58%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.57%EV -4.76%E -2.40%K -4.86%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-26 13:30
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -2.95%E -1.58%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -6.20%E -3.18%K -6.53%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-26 13:10
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -3.99%E -2.15%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -5.24%E -2.66%K -5.40%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-26 13:35
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.99%E -2.15%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.20%E -3.18%K -6.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 13:35
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.02%E -2.75%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.80%E -1.90%K -3.80%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-26 13:10
BetRivers🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -6.06%E -3.35%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -3.80%E -1.90%K -3.80%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-25 07:14
betPARX🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -6.06%E -3.35%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -3.80%E -1.90%K -3.80%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-25 07:15
Bally Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -6.06%E -3.35%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -3.80%E -1.90%K -3.80%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-25 07:14
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.58%E -3.66%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.80%E -1.90%K -3.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-26 13:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.58%E -3.66%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.80%E -1.90%K -3.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-26 13:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.58%E -3.66%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.80%E -1.90%K -3.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-26 13:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.58%E -3.66%K -8.23%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.20%E -3.18%K -6.53%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-26 13:10
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.58%E -3.66%K -8.23%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.13%E -4.26%K -8.93%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-25 06:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.58%E -3.66%K -8.23%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.13%E -4.26%K -8.93%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-25 06:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.58%E -3.66%K -8.23%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.13%E -4.26%K -8.93%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-25 06:55
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.58%E -3.66%K -8.23%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.13%E -4.26%K -8.93%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-25 06:55
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -10.21%E -5.90%K -13.99%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -3.80%E -1.90%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-26 13:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.78I 56.18%NM 51.76%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.24%8.5%2026-09-26 13:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.88%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.89%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.23%3.2%2026-09-25 16:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.88%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.89%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.23%3.2%2026-09-25 16:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.88%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.89%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.23%3.2%2026-09-25 16:50
Coolbet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 39.23%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.84%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.93%3.2%2026-09-26 09:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.83%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.70%5.5%2026-09-26 13:10
1xBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.28%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.10%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.62%6.5%2026-09-26 13:32
Unibet (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.94%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.69%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%6.6%2026-09-25 16:50
Grosvenor🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.94%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.69%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%6.6%2026-09-25 16:50
Casumo🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.94%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.69%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%6.6%2026-09-25 16:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.94%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.69%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.38%6.6%2026-09-25 16:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.30%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%9.0%2026-09-26 13:15
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.32%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%10.1%2026-09-26 13:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.08%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.80%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.12%10.9%2026-09-26 13:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.95%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.64%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.41%12.2%2026-09-25 16:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 39.62%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.36%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.01%13.2%2026-09-26 13:39
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.06%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.65%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.28%16.1%2026-09-26 13:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.54%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.17%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.29%17.6%2026-09-26 13:09