The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

KalPa v Ilves

Kickoff: 2026-09-18 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

KalPa (Local)

Prediction 48.82%2.05fair odd
EV +0.078%
Edge +0.038%
Kelly +0.074%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.84%48.69%48.95%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.891.941.912.0552.91%51.50%52.36%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ilves (Visit)

Prediction 51.18%1.95fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -2.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.31%51.05%53.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.831.801.9156.18%54.59%55.56%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: KalPa (Local): 48.82%; Ilves (Visit): 51.18%. For KalPa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.048. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.050, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.078%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.89%EV +0.078%E +0.038%K +0.074%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.11%EV -7.36%E -4.07%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-18 12:05
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -1.39%E -0.686%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -8.90%E -5.00%K -11.41%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-18 12:05
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.36%E -1.18%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.87%E -4.37%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-18 10:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.36%E -1.18%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.87%E -4.37%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-18 10:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.36%E -1.18%K -2.36%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.87%E -4.37%K -9.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-18 10:15
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.80%E -2.46%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.29%E -2.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-18 10:20
Pinnacle🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.80%E -2.46%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.29%E -2.29%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-18 15:05
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.76%E -3.54%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.24%E -1.17%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-18 11:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.76%E -3.54%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.34%E -3.46%K -7.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-18 10:20
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.76%E -3.54%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.87%E -4.37%K -9.84%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-18 10:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.76%E -3.54%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.87%E -4.37%K -9.84%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-17 06:05
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.76%E -3.54%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.87%E -4.37%K -9.84%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-17 06:05
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.76%E -3.54%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.87%E -4.37%K -9.84%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-17 06:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.76%E -3.54%K -7.42%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.87%E -4.37%K -9.84%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-17 06:05
BetRivers🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -7.73%E -4.09%K -8.69%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -3.27%E -1.73%K -3.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-18 12:39
Bally Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -7.73%E -4.09%K -8.69%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -3.27%E -1.73%K -3.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-18 12:40
betPARX🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -7.73%E -4.09%K -8.69%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -3.27%E -1.73%K -3.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-18 12:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.89I 52.91%NM 48.92%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.08%8.2%2026-09-18 10:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.96%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.12%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.92%2.9%2026-09-18 12:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.23%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.82%3.3%2026-09-18 12:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.23%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.82%3.3%2026-09-18 12:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.23%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.82%3.3%2026-09-18 12:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.97%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%6.2%2026-09-18 12:40
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.97%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%6.2%2026-09-18 12:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.97%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%6.2%2026-09-18 12:40
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.92%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.97%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%6.2%2026-09-18 12:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.81%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.12%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%6.5%2026-09-18 10:19
1xBet🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 37.06%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.07%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%6.7%2026-09-18 11:55
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.92%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%8.3%2026-09-18 10:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.05%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%8.8%2026-09-18 15:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.61%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.25%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.14%10.8%2026-09-18 10:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.07%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.86%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.06%12.4%2026-09-18 12:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.84%2.27I 44.05%NM 38.94%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.22%13.1%2026-09-18 15:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.71%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.16%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.14%13.5%2026-09-18 10:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.49%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.20%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.31%16.0%2026-09-18 10:20