The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

KalPa v Ilves

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

KalPa (Local)

Prediction 25.67%3.89fair odd
EV +12.97%
Edge +2.95%
Kelly +3.81%
Growth +0.495%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.04%25.12%25.67%27.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.643.654.4030.30%27.48%27.40%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ilves (Visit)

Prediction 52.44%1.91fair odd
EV -4.03%
Edge -2.20%
Kelly -4.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.07%52.87%52.44%55.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.761.771.8360.24%56.92%56.50%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.88%4.57fair odd
EV -1.53%
Edge -0.341%
Kelly -0.438%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.29%22.01%21.88%23.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.234.304.5027.03%23.62%23.26%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: KalPa (Local): 25.67%; Ilves (Visit): 52.44%; Draw: 21.88%. For KalPa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.89. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.97%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 22.04%EV +12.97%E +2.95%K +3.81%G +0.495%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.41%EV -8.22%E -4.70%K -10.96%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.55%EV -5.91%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-21 10:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.50%EV -2.44%E -0.642%K -0.871%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.96%EV -4.03%E -2.20%K -4.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54%EV -1.53%E -0.341%K -0.438%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-21 14:20
Svenska Spel🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.50%EV -2.44%E -0.642%K -0.871%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.96%EV -4.03%E -2.20%K -4.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54%EV -1.53%E -0.341%K -0.438%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-21 14:20
ATG (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.50%EV -2.44%E -0.642%K -0.871%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.96%EV -4.03%E -2.20%K -4.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.54%EV -1.53%E -0.341%K -0.438%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-21 14:20
Unibet (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.10%EV -2.44%E -0.642%K -0.871%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.98%EV -5.60%E -3.11%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.92%EV -4.82%E -1.11%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-21 10:24
Everygame🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.14%EV -3.72%E -0.992%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.34%EV -9.27%E -5.36%K -12.70%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.52%EV -15.76%E -4.09%K -5.53%G +0.000%10.4%2026-02-21 12:49
1xBet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -6.29%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.53%EV -6.12%E -3.42%K -7.75%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.71%EV -5.25%E -1.21%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-21 13:40
Casumo🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -6.29%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.99%EV -7.17%E -4.05%K -9.32%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -3.72%E -0.846%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-21 14:20
Grosvenor🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -6.29%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.99%EV -7.17%E -4.05%K -9.32%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -3.72%E -0.846%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-21 14:20
Unibet (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -6.29%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.99%EV -7.17%E -4.05%K -9.32%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -3.72%E -0.846%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-21 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.70%EV -6.29%E -1.72%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.99%EV -7.17%E -4.05%K -9.32%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.32%EV -3.72%E -0.846%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-21 14:20
Paddy Power🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -7.57%E -2.10%K -2.91%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.27%EV -9.27%E -5.36%K -12.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -12.47%E -3.12%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.6%2026-02-21 10:24
LeoVegas🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.79%EV -8.86%E -2.49%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.92%EV -9.27%E -5.36%K -12.70%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.29%EV -5.91%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000%9.2%2026-02-21 14:20
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -10.14%E -2.90%K -4.06%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.02%EV -7.17%E -4.05%K -9.32%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.67%EV -7.00%E -1.65%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-21 10:20
Winamax (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -10.14%E -2.90%K -4.06%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.61%EV -9.80%E -5.70%K -13.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%EV -8.10%E -1.93%K -2.53%G +0.000%10.5%2026-02-21 10:25
Tipico (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -12.71%E -3.74%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -5.60%E -3.11%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -8.10%E -1.93%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-21 13:25
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 25.80%EV -13.99%E -4.18%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 51.75%EV -12.42%E -7.44%K -18.53%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.45%EV -15.76%E -4.09%K -5.53%G +0.000%15.7%2026-02-21 14:50
Betclic (FR)🎯3.33I 30.03%NM 25.60%EV -14.50%E -4.36%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 51.36%EV -12.94%E -7.80%K -19.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.04%EV -19.04%E -5.15%K -7.05%G +0.000%17.3%2026-02-21 14:34
Winamax (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.23%EV -15.27%E -4.63%K -6.64%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 52.14%EV -12.94%E -7.80%K -19.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.64%EV -12.47%E -3.12%K -4.16%G +0.000%15.5%2026-02-21 10:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.03%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.97%3.7%2026-02-21 14:40
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%3.7%2026-02-21 10:25
DraftKings🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%4.1%2026-02-21 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 33.64%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.36%4.7%2026-02-21 14:40
NordicBet🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 33.88%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.12%5.0%2026-02-21 14:55
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%5.3%2026-02-21 14:20
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%5.3%2026-02-21 14:20
Bally Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%5.3%2026-02-21 14:20
Betsson🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%5.3%2026-02-21 14:05
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%5.8%2026-02-21 10:25
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%5.8%2026-02-21 10:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%5.8%2026-02-21 10:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%5.8%2026-02-21 10:24
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%6.0%2026-02-21 10:25
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%6.5%2026-02-21 13:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%7.5%2026-02-21 10:10
Neds🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%7.5%2026-02-21 10:10
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%7.6%2026-02-21 10:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%7.6%2026-02-21 10:09
Smarkets◎2.74I 36.50%NM 33.50%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.50%9.0%2026-02-21 14:50