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KalPa v HIFK

Kickoff: 2026-03-11 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

KalPa (Local)

Prediction 41.98%2.38fair odd
EV -0.095%
Edge -0.040%
Kelly -0.069%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.77%42.10%41.98%43.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.202.202.3848.78%45.52%45.45%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HIFK (Visit)

Prediction 33.81%2.96fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -0.916%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.77%33.76%33.81%35.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.732.802.8840.00%36.63%35.71%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.22%4.13fair odd
EV +1.71%
Edge +0.407%
Kelly +0.534%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.40%24.14%24.22%24.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.533.913.954.2028.33%25.58%25.32%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: KalPa (Local): 41.98%; HIFK (Visit): 33.81%; Draw: 24.22%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.13. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.71%.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.82%EV -5.55%E -2.47%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.78%EV -11.09%E -4.22%K -6.80%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV +1.71%E +0.407%K +0.534%G +0.009%6.3%2026-03-11 15:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.59%EV -4.29%E -1.88%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.72%EV -2.64%E -0.916%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%EV -0.712%E -0.174%K -0.230%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-11 12:01
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.59%EV -4.29%E -1.88%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.72%EV -2.64%E -0.916%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%EV -0.712%E -0.174%K -0.230%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-11 12:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.59%EV -4.29%E -1.88%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.72%EV -2.64%E -0.916%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.69%EV -0.712%E -0.174%K -0.230%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-11 12:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.05%EV -4.71%E -2.08%K -3.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.09%EV -5.34%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.86%EV -3.13%E -0.783%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-11 14:15
Coolbet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.77%EV -0.095%E -0.040%K -0.069%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.66%EV -5.34%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.57%EV -4.34%E -1.10%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-11 11:05
Casumo🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.69%EV -7.65%E -3.48%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.34%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -4.34%E -1.10%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-11 12:55
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.69%EV -7.65%E -3.48%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.34%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -4.34%E -1.10%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-11 12:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.69%EV -7.65%E -3.48%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.34%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -4.34%E -1.10%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-11 12:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.69%EV -7.65%E -3.48%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.34%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -4.34%E -1.10%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-11 12:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%EV -11.85%E -5.64%K -10.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -5.34%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -5.55%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-11 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -9.75%E -4.53%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.77%EV -12.10%E -4.65%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%EV -5.55%E -1.42%K -1.92%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-11 14:15
LeoVegas🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.47%EV -9.75%E -4.53%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.82%EV -8.72%E -3.23%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.72%EV -6.77%E -1.76%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-11 12:55
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -7.65%E -3.48%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%EV -7.03%E -2.56%K -4.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -9.19%E -2.45%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-11 14:15
Everygame🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -7.65%E -3.48%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.78%EV -12.10%E -4.65%K -7.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -9.19%E -2.45%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-11 15:45
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.35%EV -11.85%E -5.64%K -10.77%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.94%EV -11.43%E -4.36%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.71%EV -9.19%E -2.45%K -3.34%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-11 14:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.12%EV -13.95%E -6.80%K -13.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.54%EV -15.48%E -6.19%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.34%EV -10.40%E -2.81%K -3.85%G +0.000%15.8%2026-03-11 14:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.65%EV -13.95%E -6.80%K -13.28%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.16%EV -15.48%E -6.19%K -10.32%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 24.19%EV -14.52%E -4.11%K -5.74%G +0.000%17.1%2026-03-11 16:06
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%4.1%2026-03-11 14:15
DraftKings🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%4.5%2026-03-11 11:05
Pinnacle🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%5.0%2026-03-11 16:00
BetRivers🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%5.4%2026-03-11 12:01
Bally Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%5.4%2026-03-11 12:25
betPARX🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%5.4%2026-03-11 12:25
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-03-11 16:24
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-03-11 16:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-03-11 16:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-03-11 16:25
Betsson🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%5.7%2026-03-11 06:55
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%5.7%2026-03-11 06:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%6.3%2026-03-11 14:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%8.4%2026-03-11 15:30
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%8.4%2026-03-11 15:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%8.4%2026-03-11 15:30
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%8.4%2026-03-11 15:30
Smarkets◎1.71I 58.48%NM 52.50%1.89I 52.91%NM 47.50%11.4%2026-03-11 14:20