The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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KalPa v Ässät

Kickoff: 2026-10-14 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

KalPa (Local)

Prediction 45.71%2.19fair odd
EV -3.54%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -3.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.34%45.93%45.71%47.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.052.062.1150.00%48.83%48.43%47.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ässät (Visit)

Prediction 54.29%1.84fair odd
EV -2.29%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -2.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.63%54.07%54.29%54.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.761.751.8057.80%56.90%57.14%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: KalPa (Local): 45.71%; Ässät (Visit): 54.29%. For Ässät (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.84. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.80, with an expected value of -2.29%; they did not produce positive expected value.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.34%EV -3.54%E -1.68%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.66%EV -5.00%E -2.86%K -6.67%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-14 14:35
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.00%E -1.90%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.91%E -2.21%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-14 12:20
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.00%E -1.90%K -3.64%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.91%E -2.21%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-14 12:20
NordicBet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.85%EV -4.46%E -2.13%K -4.09%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.15%EV -3.91%E -2.21%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-14 15:24
BetRivers🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.91%E -2.36%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.00%E -2.86%K -6.67%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-14 10:04
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.91%E -2.36%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.00%E -2.86%K -6.67%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-14 10:14
Bally Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.91%E -2.36%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.00%E -2.86%K -6.67%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-14 10:04
betPARX🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.91%E -2.36%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.00%E -2.86%K -6.67%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-14 10:04
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.29%E -3.07%K -5.99%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.54%E -3.19%K -7.49%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-14 12:19
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.57%E -4.29%K -8.57%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.29%E -1.27%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-12 15:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.57%E -4.29%K -8.57%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.29%E -1.27%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-12 15:34
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.57%E -4.29%K -8.57%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.29%E -1.27%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-12 15:45
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.57%E -4.29%K -8.57%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.09%E -3.52%K -8.34%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-12 12:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.57%E -4.29%K -8.57%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.09%E -3.52%K -8.34%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-12 12:14
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.57%E -4.29%K -8.57%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.09%E -3.52%K -8.34%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-12 12:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.57%E -4.29%K -8.57%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.09%E -3.52%K -8.34%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-12 12:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.10%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.90%1.4%2026-10-14 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.10%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.90%1.4%2026-10-14 15:25
Smarkets◎2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%8.1%2026-10-14 12:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.49%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.23%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.28%3.0%2026-10-14 14:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.49%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.23%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.28%3.0%2026-10-14 15:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.49%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.23%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.28%3.0%2026-10-14 15:00
Coolbet🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 33.82%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.30%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.89%3.0%2026-10-14 09:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.54%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%6.1%2026-10-14 12:18
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.63%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.23%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%6.2%2026-10-14 10:10
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.63%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.23%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%6.2%2026-10-14 10:09
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.63%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.23%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%6.2%2026-10-14 10:09
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.63%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.23%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%6.2%2026-10-14 10:09
1xBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.20%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%6.3%2026-10-14 14:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.51%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%8.5%2026-10-14 14:34
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.61%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.21%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.18%10.3%2026-10-14 12:19
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.78%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%10.6%2026-10-14 12:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.67%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.92%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.41%10.9%2026-10-14 12:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.83%2.17I 46.08%NM 40.85%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.32%12.8%2026-10-14 15:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 34.89%2.05I 48.78%NM 41.69%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.42%17.0%2026-10-14 12:19
Unibet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 34.30%2.05I 48.78%NM 40.99%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.71%19.0%2026-10-14 15:19