The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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JYP v Kärpät

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

JYP (Local)

Prediction 61.37%1.63fair odd
EV -1.80%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -3.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.89%61.53%61.30%63.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.571.561.6066.67%63.89%64.10%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kärpät (Visit)

Prediction 38.63%2.59fair odd
EV +0.430%
Edge +0.165%
Kelly +0.269%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.59%38.47%38.70%42.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.392.402.6045.45%41.89%41.67%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: JYP (Local): 61.37%; Kärpät (Visit): 38.63%. For Kärpät (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.59. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.430%.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -7.94%E -5.29%K -15.88%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +0.430%E +0.165%K +0.269%G +0.001%5.1%2026-10-16 16:10
DraftKings🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -5.49%E -3.56%K -10.16%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -1.89%E -0.743%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-16 15:05
NordicBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.26%E -2.73%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.43%E -1.37%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-16 16:20
Betsson🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.49%E -3.56%K -10.16%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.21%E -1.70%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 16:20
theScore Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -2.42%E -1.52%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -5.36%E -2.19%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-16 15:10
Bally Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.26%E -2.73%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.14%E -2.53%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 13:44
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.26%E -2.73%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.14%E -2.53%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 13:44
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -4.26%E -2.73%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -6.14%E -2.53%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 13:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.26%E -2.73%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.30%E -3.04%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-16 15:10
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.64%E -2.32%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.07%E -3.39%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-16 13:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.64%E -2.32%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.07%E -3.39%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-16 13:44
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -3.64%E -2.32%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -8.07%E -3.39%K -5.85%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-16 13:45
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.10%E -3.99%K -11.51%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.07%E -3.39%K -5.85%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-16 15:10
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -1.80%E -1.13%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -15.02%E -6.83%K -12.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-15 11:34
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -1.80%E -1.13%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -15.02%E -6.83%K -12.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-15 11:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -1.80%E -1.13%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -15.02%E -6.83%K -12.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-15 11:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -1.80%E -1.13%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -15.02%E -6.83%K -12.52%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-15 11:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 63.77%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.23%4.5%2026-10-16 16:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 63.77%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.23%4.5%2026-10-16 16:15
Smarkets◎1.54I 64.94%NM 60.10%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.90%8.0%2026-10-16 15:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.61%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.78%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.61%2.8%2026-10-16 13:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.33%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.44%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.23%3.4%2026-10-16 13:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.33%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.44%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.23%3.4%2026-10-16 13:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.33%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.44%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.23%3.4%2026-10-16 13:44
Unibet (UK)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.73%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.22%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.06%5.8%2026-10-16 15:10
1xBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.30%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.83%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.87%6.3%2026-10-16 16:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%6.5%2026-10-16 13:44
Casumo🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%6.5%2026-10-16 13:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%6.5%2026-10-16 13:45
Grosvenor🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%6.5%2026-10-16 13:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.39%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%8.4%2026-10-16 15:10
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%8.6%2026-10-16 14:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.43%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.06%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.52%11.0%2026-10-16 15:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.17%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.23%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.60%13.0%2026-10-16 16:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.13%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.37%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.50%15.4%2026-10-16 15:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 47.57%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.04%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.39%18.8%2026-10-16 16:20