The School of Odds
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JYP v Jukurit

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

JYP (Local)

Prediction 78.57%1.27fair odd
EV -0.999%
Edge -0.793%
Kelly -3.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.05%78.43%78.62%80.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.211.201.2684.75%82.94%83.33%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jukurit (Visit)

Prediction 21.43%4.67fair odd
EV +2.85%
Edge +0.594%
Kelly +0.751%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.73%21.57%21.38%23.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.394.504.8025.64%22.79%22.22%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: JYP (Local): 78.57%; Jukurit (Visit): 21.43%. For Jukurit (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.67. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.85%.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -7.28%E -6.17%K -40.47%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV +2.85%E +0.594%K +0.751%G +0.021%5.6%2026-03-06 11:00
Bally Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -7.28%E -6.17%K -40.47%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV +2.85%E +0.594%K +0.751%G +0.021%5.6%2026-03-06 11:00
betPARX🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -7.28%E -6.17%K -40.47%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV +2.85%E +0.594%K +0.751%G +0.021%5.6%2026-03-06 11:00
Betsson🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.13%EV -5.71%E -4.76%K -28.57%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.87%EV -2.50%E -0.550%K -0.705%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-06 11:00
NordicBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.13%EV -5.71%E -4.76%K -28.57%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.87%EV -2.50%E -0.550%K -0.705%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-06 11:00
888sport🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.71%E -4.76%K -28.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.58%E -0.795%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-06 10:15
William Hill🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.71%E -4.76%K -28.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.58%E -0.795%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-06 11:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.71%E -4.76%K -28.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.58%E -0.795%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-06 10:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.71%E -4.76%K -28.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.58%E -0.795%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-06 10:15
theScore Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.14%E -3.39%K -18.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -5.72%E -1.30%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-06 10:15
Pinnacle🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.92%EV -4.93%E -4.07%K -23.46%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.08%EV -8.50%E -1.99%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-06 12:50
Bovada🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -5.71%E -4.76%K -28.57%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -8.93%E -2.10%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-05 20:48
DraftKings🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -0.999%E -0.793%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -14.29%E -3.57%K -4.76%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-06 11:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.14%E -3.39%K -18.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -14.29%E -3.57%K -4.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-06 11:00
Coral🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -4.14%E -3.39%K -18.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -16.43%E -4.21%K -5.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-05 10:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -4.14%E -3.39%K -18.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -16.43%E -4.21%K -5.67%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-05 10:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.22I 81.97%NM 79.39%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.61%3.2%2026-03-06 16:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.22I 81.97%NM 79.39%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.61%3.2%2026-03-06 16:20
Smarkets◎1.20I 83.33%NM 76.70%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%8.6%2026-03-06 11:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 70.09%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.48%5.55I 18.02%NM 17.43%3.4%2026-03-06 10:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.36%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.85%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.79%3.8%2026-03-06 11:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.36%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.85%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.79%3.8%2026-03-06 11:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.36%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.85%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.79%3.8%2026-03-06 11:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.40%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.19%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.41%4.4%2026-03-06 11:01
1xBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%6.94I 14.41%NM 13.55%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%6.3%2026-03-06 11:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.94%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%6.9%2026-03-06 11:10
Grosvenor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.94%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%6.9%2026-03-06 11:10
Casumo🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.94%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%6.9%2026-03-06 11:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.94%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%6.9%2026-03-06 11:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.59%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.71%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%8.9%2026-03-06 10:15
Betway🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%8.9%2026-03-06 11:00
LeoVegas🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.03%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.77%9.3%2026-03-06 11:10
Everygame🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.19%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%10.3%2026-03-06 14:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.35%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.30%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.36%10.8%2026-03-06 11:00
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.22%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.90%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%11.9%2026-03-06 11:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 65.99%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.28%4.65I 21.51%NM 18.73%14.8%2026-03-06 16:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 65.98%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.01%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.01%15.7%2026-03-06 11:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 65.39%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.57%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.04%16.7%2026-03-06 16:04