The School of Odds
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JYP v Ilves

Kickoff: 2026-03-13 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

JYP (Local)

Prediction 39.60%2.53fair odd
EV +2.97%
Edge +1.14%
Kelly +1.86%
Growth +0.055%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.59%39.38%39.46%41.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.382.352.6043.48%41.96%42.55%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ilves (Visit)

Prediction 60.40%1.66fair odd
EV -0.346%
Edge -0.210%
Kelly -0.533%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.67%60.62%60.54%63.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.571.571.6566.67%63.60%63.69%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: JYP (Local): 39.60%; Ilves (Visit): 60.40%. For JYP (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.53. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.97%.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +2.97%E +1.14%K +1.86%G +0.055%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -9.41%E -6.27%K -18.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-13 16:25
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -0.991%E -0.396%K -0.660%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -5.78%E -3.71%K -10.32%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-13 15:50
NordicBet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -1.78%E -0.719%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -6.99%E -4.54%K -12.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-13 13:55
Betsson🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -1.78%E -0.719%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -6.99%E -4.54%K -12.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-13 13:55
Neds🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -5.74%E -2.41%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.59%E -4.96%K -14.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-13 15:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -5.74%E -2.41%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.59%E -4.96%K -14.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-13 15:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -6.14%E -2.59%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -7.59%E -4.96%K -14.33%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-13 15:10
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -6.14%E -2.59%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -7.59%E -4.96%K -14.33%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-13 15:10
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -6.93%E -2.95%K -5.13%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -0.346%E -0.210%K -0.533%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-13 15:50
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.93%E -2.95%K -5.13%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.37%E -2.10%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-13 13:55
Bally Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.93%E -2.95%K -5.13%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.37%E -2.10%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-13 14:00
betPARX🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.93%E -2.95%K -5.13%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.37%E -2.10%K -5.61%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-13 14:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.93%E -2.95%K -5.13%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.18%E -3.30%K -9.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-13 15:49
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -8.91%E -3.87%K -6.85%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -2.16%E -1.33%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-13 15:24
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -8.91%E -3.87%K -6.85%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.76%E -1.72%K -4.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-13 15:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -8.91%E -3.87%K -6.85%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.76%E -1.72%K -4.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-13 15:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -8.91%E -3.87%K -6.85%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -2.76%E -1.72%K -4.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-13 15:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.00%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.00%1.6%2026-03-13 16:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.46I 40.65%NM 40.00%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.00%1.6%2026-03-13 16:25
Smarkets◎2.28I 43.86%NM 40.47%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.53%8.4%2026-03-13 15:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.91%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.17%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.92%3.2%2026-03-13 13:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.26%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.28%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.46%3.6%2026-03-13 15:04
ATG (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.26%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.28%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.46%3.6%2026-03-13 15:05
Svenska Spel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.26%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.28%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.46%3.6%2026-03-13 15:04
Unibet (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.97%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.28%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.76%4.6%2026-03-13 15:50
Unibet (NL)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%6.9%2026-03-13 15:05
Casumo🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%6.9%2026-03-13 15:04
Grosvenor🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%6.9%2026-03-13 15:04
Unibet (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%6.9%2026-03-13 15:05
Betway🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%8.6%2026-03-13 15:50
Tipico (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.59%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.88%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%9.0%2026-03-13 16:20
LeoVegas🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.37%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.43%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%9.8%2026-03-13 15:05
Everygame🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.27%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.61%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.12%10.5%2026-03-13 16:05
Winamax (DE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%1.88I 53.19%NM 47.93%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%11.0%2026-03-13 15:50
Paddy Power🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.40%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.12%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.48%13.6%2026-03-13 15:50
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.41%1.84I 54.35%NM 47.15%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.45%15.3%2026-03-13 16:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 29.79%1.82I 54.95%NM 47.47%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.74%15.7%2026-03-13 15:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 29.44%1.81I 55.25%NM 47.17%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.39%17.1%2026-03-13 16:09