The School of Odds
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Jukurit v Tappara

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jukurit (Local)

Prediction 30.31%3.30fair odd
EV +1.54%
Edge +0.461%
Kelly +0.657%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.01%30.22%30.44%31.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.093.103.3537.04%32.41%32.26%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tappara (Visit)

Prediction 45.16%2.21fair odd
EV -2.90%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -2.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.33%45.34%45.05%46.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.892.052.072.1552.91%48.81%48.31%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.52%4.08fair odd
EV -3.13%
Edge -0.792%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.52%24.44%24.51%25.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.753.753.9529.41%26.65%26.67%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jukurit (Local): 30.31%; Tappara (Visit): 45.16%; Draw: 24.52%. For Jukurit (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.30. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.54%.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 29.01%EV +1.54%E +0.461%K +0.657%G +0.010%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.41%EV -3.35%E -1.57%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.58%EV -6.81%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-17 09:45
ATG (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 29.01%EV +1.54%E +0.461%K +0.657%G +0.010%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.41%EV -3.35%E -1.57%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.58%EV -6.81%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-17 09:44
Svenska Spel🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 29.01%EV +1.54%E +0.461%K +0.657%G +0.010%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.41%EV -3.35%E -1.57%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.58%EV -6.81%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-17 09:45
Coolbet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.80%EV -1.49%E -0.458%K -0.661%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.05%EV -2.90%E -1.35%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.16%EV -5.58%E -1.45%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-17 10:05
Grosvenor🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -3.00%E -0.939%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.32%EV -6.51%E -3.15%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -9.26%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-17 09:45
Unibet (NL)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -3.00%E -0.939%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.32%EV -6.51%E -3.15%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -9.26%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-17 09:44
Casumo🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -3.00%E -0.939%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.32%EV -6.51%E -3.15%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -9.26%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-17 09:45
Unibet (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.32%EV -3.00%E -0.939%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.32%EV -6.51%E -3.15%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -9.26%E -2.50%K -3.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-17 09:45
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -6.03%E -1.95%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.37%EV -6.06%E -2.91%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -4.35%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-17 10:20
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -6.03%E -1.95%K -2.87%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.72%EV -11.03%E -5.60%K -11.37%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.60%EV -4.35%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-17 10:25
1xBet🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 31.16%EV -8.46%E -2.80%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.02%EV -5.61%E -2.68%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -3.13%E -0.792%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-17 13:50
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -9.07%E -3.02%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -7.41%E -3.62%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -8.03%E -2.14%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-17 10:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.22%EV -12.10%E -4.17%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.27%EV -9.67%E -4.84%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.52%EV -5.58%E -1.45%K -1.96%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-17 10:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.54%EV -12.10%E -4.17%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 44.73%EV -10.58%E -5.34%K -10.79%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.74%EV -12.20%E -3.41%K -4.73%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-17 15:09
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.17%EV -12.70%E -4.41%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.89%EV -9.67%E -4.84%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.94%EV -8.03%E -2.14%K -2.92%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-17 09:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.39%EV -16.64%E -6.05%K -9.51%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 44.96%EV -13.29%E -6.92%K -14.44%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.65%EV -10.48%E -2.87%K -3.96%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-17 10:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 31.03%EV -18.16%E -6.73%K -10.68%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 44.33%EV -14.64%E -7.75%K -16.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.64%EV -16.62%E -4.89%K -6.92%G +0.000%19.4%2026-10-17 15:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%3.6%2026-10-17 13:00
NordicBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%4.1%2026-10-17 10:15
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%4.3%2026-10-17 15:25
BetRivers🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%4.8%2026-10-17 09:45
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%4.8%2026-10-17 09:49
Bally Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%4.8%2026-10-17 09:45
Pinnacle🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%5.1%2026-10-17 13:50
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%5.1%2026-10-17 09:44
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%5.3%2026-10-17 09:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%5.3%2026-10-17 09:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%5.3%2026-10-17 09:44
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%6.1%2026-10-17 09:45
Smarkets◎2.18I 45.87%NM 42.48%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.52%8.0%2026-10-17 10:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%8.0%2026-10-17 05:04
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%8.0%2026-10-17 05:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%8.0%2026-10-17 05:05
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%8.0%2026-10-17 05:04
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 41.05%1.56I 64.10%NM 58.95%8.7%2026-10-17 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 41.05%1.56I 64.10%NM 58.95%8.7%2026-10-17 15:25