The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Jukurit v Lukko

Kickoff: 2026-10-28 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jukurit (Local)

Prediction 47.38%2.11fair odd
EV -2.88%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -2.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.33%47.46%47.37%48.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.012.022.0551.28%49.64%49.50%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lukko (Visit)

Prediction 52.62%1.90fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -3.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.70%52.54%52.63%54.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.781.801.8558.82%56.33%55.56%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jukurit (Local): 47.38%; Lukko (Visit): 52.62%. For Lukko (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.90. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.85, with an expected value of -2.64%; they did not produce positive expected value.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -2.88%E -1.41%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -10.54%E -6.20%K -15.05%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-28 10:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -2.88%E -1.41%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -10.54%E -6.20%K -15.05%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-28 10:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -2.88%E -1.41%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -10.54%E -6.20%K -15.05%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-28 10:35
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -2.88%E -1.41%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -10.54%E -6.20%K -15.05%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-28 10:35
NordicBet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%EV -3.35%E -1.64%K -3.23%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%EV -4.75%E -2.62%K -5.86%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-28 16:05
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -4.30%E -2.13%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -5.28%E -2.93%K -6.59%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-28 16:05
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.30%E -2.13%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.80%E -3.24%K -7.34%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-28 15:15
Bally Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.30%E -2.13%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.80%E -3.24%K -7.34%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-28 15:20
betPARX🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.30%E -2.13%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.80%E -3.24%K -7.34%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-28 15:15
Pinnacle🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.25%E -2.62%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.22%E -2.32%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-28 15:45
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.25%E -2.62%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.28%E -2.93%K -6.59%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-28 12:00
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.25%E -2.62%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.28%E -2.93%K -6.59%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-28 11:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.25%E -2.62%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.28%E -2.93%K -6.59%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-28 11:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.25%E -2.62%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.28%E -2.93%K -6.59%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-28 11:35
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.25%E -2.62%K -5.25%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.96%E -5.18%K -12.27%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-28 12:00
DraftKings🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -6.20%E -3.13%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -2.64%E -1.43%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-28 16:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.62%E -3.91%K -8.02%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.28%E -2.93%K -6.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-28 11:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%7.1%2026-10-28 16:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%7.1%2026-10-28 16:25
Smarkets◎1.93I 51.81%NM 47.84%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.16%8.3%2026-10-28 12:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.74%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.99%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.26%2.9%2026-10-28 15:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.74%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.99%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.26%2.9%2026-10-28 15:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.74%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.99%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.26%2.9%2026-10-28 15:15
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.39%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.35%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.26%2.9%2026-10-28 11:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.15%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.54%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.31%5.4%2026-10-28 12:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.55%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.98%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%6.4%2026-10-28 15:15
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.55%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.98%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%6.4%2026-10-28 15:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.55%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.98%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%6.4%2026-10-28 15:15
1xBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.38%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.58%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%6.7%2026-10-28 15:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%8.5%2026-10-28 12:00
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.34%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%10.5%2026-10-28 12:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.31%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.02%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.67%11.1%2026-10-28 11:59
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.82%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.36%11.6%2026-10-28 15:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%12.9%2026-10-28 16:08
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.56%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.70%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.74%17.2%2026-10-28 12:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 34.90%2.10I 47.62%NM 39.06%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.04%21.9%2026-10-28 16:19