The School of Odds
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Jukurit v KalPa

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jukurit (Local)

Prediction 37.11%2.69fair odd
EV -1.65%
Edge -0.623%
Kelly -1.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.73%37.24%37.15%39.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.492.552.6544.44%40.14%39.22%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

KalPa (Visit)

Prediction 38.24%2.62fair odd
EV -1.72%
Edge -0.670%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.46%38.12%38.17%38.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.432.452.5745.45%41.14%40.82%38.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.65%4.06fair odd
EV -2.40%
Edge -0.606%
Kelly -0.811%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.66%24.64%24.68%25.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.773.803.9629.85%26.54%26.32%25.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jukurit (Local): 37.11%; KalPa (Visit): 38.24%; Draw: 24.65%. For Jukurit (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.69. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.65, with an expected value of -1.65%; they did not produce positive expected value.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.78%EV -1.65%E -0.623%K -1.00%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.22%EV -2.49%E -0.975%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.99%EV -3.88%E -0.994%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.6%2026-10-03 11:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.78%EV -1.65%E -0.623%K -1.00%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.22%EV -2.49%E -0.975%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.99%EV -3.88%E -0.994%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.6%2026-10-03 11:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.78%EV -1.65%E -0.623%K -1.00%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.22%EV -2.49%E -0.975%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.99%EV -3.88%E -0.994%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.6%2026-10-03 11:30
Coolbet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 37.05%EV -2.76%E -1.05%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.06%EV -2.49%E -0.975%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.89%EV -3.88%E -0.994%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-03 09:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11%EV -5.36%E -2.10%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.63%EV -6.31%E -2.58%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.26%EV -3.88%E -0.994%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-03 13:15
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -5.36%E -2.10%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.38%EV -6.31%E -2.58%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.34%E -1.67%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-03 11:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -5.36%E -2.10%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.38%EV -6.31%E -2.58%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.34%E -1.67%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-03 11:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -5.36%E -2.10%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.38%EV -6.31%E -2.58%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.34%E -1.67%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-03 11:30
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -5.36%E -2.10%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.38%EV -6.31%E -2.58%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.34%E -1.67%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-03 11:30
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.92%EV -7.22%E -2.89%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.22%E -3.43%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -7.58%E -2.02%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-03 13:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.73%EV -9.82%E -4.04%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.47%EV -11.28%E -4.86%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.79%EV -11.27%E -3.13%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 11:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -10.93%E -4.55%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -6.31%E -2.58%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -6.34%E -1.67%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-03 13:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.70%EV -10.93%E -4.55%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.50%EV -10.14%E -4.31%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.81%EV -6.34%E -1.67%K -2.27%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-03 13:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.82%EV -10.93%E -4.55%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 37.93%EV -10.90%E -4.68%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.25%EV -13.74%E -3.92%K -5.49%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-03 13:39
1xBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.88%EV -12.78%E -5.44%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 36.46%EV -1.72%E -0.670%K -1.10%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.66%EV -2.40%E -0.606%K -0.811%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-03 13:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.58%EV -14.64%E -6.37%K -11.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.41%EV -13.96%E -6.20%K -11.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.01%EV -11.27%E -3.13%K -4.34%G +0.000%15.7%2026-10-03 13:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 37.11%EV -16.50%E -7.33%K -13.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 37.96%EV -15.87%E -7.21%K -13.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 24.93%EV -17.43%E -5.20%K -7.42%G +0.000%19.7%2026-10-03 13:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%4.2%2026-10-03 09:10
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%4.7%2026-10-03 09:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%4.7%2026-10-03 09:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%4.7%2026-10-03 09:09
DraftKings🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%4.7%2026-10-03 13:15
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%4.8%2026-10-03 13:55
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%4.8%2026-10-03 13:15
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%5.3%2026-10-03 09:09
BetRivers🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%5.3%2026-10-03 12:50
betPARX🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%5.3%2026-10-03 12:50
Bally Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%5.3%2026-10-03 12:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%7.0%2026-10-03 13:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%7.0%2026-10-03 05:35
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%7.0%2026-10-03 05:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%7.0%2026-10-03 05:40
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%7.0%2026-10-03 05:50
Smarkets◎1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%8.1%2026-10-03 13:15
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%9.3%2026-10-03 13:55