The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Jukurit v HPK

Kickoff: 2026-09-01 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jukurit (Local)

Prediction 33.54%2.98fair odd
EV -1.06%
Edge -0.358%
Kelly -0.542%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.80%33.58%33.57%34.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.782.792.9539.22%36.00%35.84%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HPK (Visit)

Prediction 41.39%2.42fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -0.630%
Kelly -1.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.70%41.36%41.59%42.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.222.232.3848.78%45.07%44.84%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.07%3.99fair odd
EV -1.72%
Edge -0.438%
Kelly -0.587%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.99%25.06%24.84%25.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.433.723.753.9229.15%26.87%26.67%25.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jukurit (Local): 33.54%; HPK (Visit): 41.39%; Draw: 25.07%. For Jukurit (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.98. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.95, with an expected value of -1.06%; they did not produce positive expected value.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.80%EV -1.06%E -0.358%K -0.542%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.81%E -2.09%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.13%EV -3.47%E -0.901%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-01 12:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.80%EV -1.06%E -0.358%K -0.542%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.81%E -2.09%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.13%EV -3.47%E -0.901%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-01 12:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.80%EV -1.06%E -0.358%K -0.542%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -4.81%E -2.09%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.13%EV -3.47%E -0.901%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-01 12:10
Coolbet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 33.27%EV -2.06%E -0.707%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.82%EV -1.50%E -0.630%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.91%EV -5.98%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-01 11:10
Grosvenor🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.92%EV -4.41%E -1.55%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.07%EV -7.71%E -3.46%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -5.98%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-01 12:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.92%EV -4.41%E -1.55%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.07%EV -7.71%E -3.46%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -5.98%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-01 12:10
Casumo🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.92%EV -4.41%E -1.55%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.07%EV -7.71%E -3.46%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -5.98%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-01 12:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.92%EV -4.41%E -1.55%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.07%EV -7.71%E -3.46%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV -5.98%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-01 12:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -6.09%E -2.17%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.53%EV -6.05%E -2.67%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.81%EV -4.72%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-28 15:00
1xBet🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.83%EV -6.76%E -2.43%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.18%EV -7.71%E -3.46%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 23.99%EV -1.72%E -0.438%K -0.587%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-01 15:05
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%EV -7.76%E -2.82%K -4.44%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -8.95%E -4.07%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -5.98%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-01 02:34
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.04%EV -9.44%E -3.50%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.78%EV -8.95%E -4.07%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -4.72%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-01 13:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.96%EV -9.44%E -3.50%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.98%EV -12.26%E -5.78%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.07%EV -10.99%E -3.10%K -4.31%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-01 12:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.02%EV -11.12%E -4.20%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.93%EV -11.02%E -5.12%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.04%EV -5.98%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-28 15:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.57%EV -11.12%E -4.20%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.37%EV -11.02%E -5.12%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.06%EV -10.99%E -3.10%K -4.31%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-01 03:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.40%EV -11.12%E -4.20%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 40.79%EV -10.19%E -4.70%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 25.81%EV -14.00%E -4.08%K -5.76%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-01 15:05
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.43%EV -12.80%E -4.92%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -8.95%E -4.07%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -9.74%E -2.71%K -3.75%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-28 15:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.76%EV -14.47%E -5.68%K -9.34%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 41.99%EV -15.16%E -7.39%K -14.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.25%EV -10.99%E -3.10%K -4.31%G +0.000%16.2%2026-09-01 08:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.89%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.11%4.0%2026-09-01 09:39
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%4.8%2026-09-01 04:49
Pinnacle🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%4.8%2026-09-01 15:00
BetRivers🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%5.2%2026-09-01 13:35
betPARX🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%5.2%2026-09-01 13:35
Bally Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%5.2%2026-09-01 13:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%5.4%2026-09-01 15:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%5.4%2026-09-01 15:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-08-30 15:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-08-30 15:35
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-08-30 20:25
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%5.7%2026-09-01 09:40
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%6.3%2026-08-27 19:19
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%6.3%2026-08-28 15:01
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%7.6%2026-08-31 23:30
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%7.6%2026-08-31 23:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%7.6%2026-08-31 23:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%7.6%2026-08-31 23:30
Smarkets◎2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%8.5%2026-09-01 12:50