The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Jukurit v Ässät

Kickoff: 2026-10-07 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jukurit (Local)

Prediction 47.30%2.11fair odd
EV -3.04%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -2.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.33%47.61%47.24%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.022.022.0552.36%49.59%49.50%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ässät (Visit)

Prediction 52.70%1.90fair odd
EV +0.659%
Edge +0.345%
Kelly +0.724%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%52.39%52.76%54.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.771.781.9158.82%56.37%56.18%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jukurit (Local): 47.30%; Ässät (Visit): 52.70%. For Ässät (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.90. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.91, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.659%.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -9.66%E -5.06%K -10.61%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +0.659%E +0.345%K +0.724%G +0.005%4.7%2026-10-04 13:55
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -4.46%E -2.21%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -3.56%E -1.94%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-04 19:19
Pinnacle🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.76%EV -6.35%E -3.21%K -6.48%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.24%EV -4.61%E -2.55%K -5.69%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-04 19:05
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -4.46%E -2.21%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -5.14%E -2.85%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-04 15:14
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.40%E -2.70%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.14%E -2.85%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-05 09:00
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.40%E -2.70%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.14%E -2.85%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-05 09:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.40%E -2.70%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.14%E -2.85%K -6.42%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-05 09:05
BetRivers🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -3.04%E -1.48%K -2.89%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -6.19%E -3.48%K -7.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-04 20:00
Bally Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -3.04%E -1.48%K -2.89%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -6.19%E -3.48%K -7.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-04 20:00
betPARX🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -3.04%E -1.48%K -2.89%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -6.19%E -3.48%K -7.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-04 20:00
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.40%E -2.70%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.72%E -3.80%K -8.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-04 09:14
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.40%E -2.70%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.72%E -3.80%K -8.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-04 09:15
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -5.40%E -2.70%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.83%E -5.10%K -12.09%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-04 09:14
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -3.04%E -1.48%K -2.89%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -10.41%E -6.12%K -14.87%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 16:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -3.04%E -1.48%K -2.89%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -10.41%E -6.12%K -14.87%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 16:30
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -3.04%E -1.48%K -2.89%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -10.41%E -6.12%K -14.87%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -3.04%E -1.48%K -2.89%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -10.41%E -6.12%K -14.87%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 16:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.92I 52.08%NM 47.25%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.75%10.2%2026-10-04 09:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-10-04 10:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-10-04 10:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 34.04%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.43%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.53%3.1%2026-10-04 15:19
ATG (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 34.04%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.76%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20%3.1%2026-10-04 19:54
Svenska Spel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 34.04%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.76%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20%3.1%2026-10-04 19:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 34.04%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.76%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.20%3.1%2026-10-04 19:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.39%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%6.3%2026-10-04 09:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%6.5%2026-10-04 20:00
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%6.5%2026-10-04 20:00
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%6.5%2026-10-04 20:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.14%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%6.5%2026-10-04 20:00
1xBet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 35.90%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.38%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.72%6.7%2026-10-04 19:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.74%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.09%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%8.9%2026-10-05 13:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 34.87%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.34%3.63I 27.55%NM 24.78%11.2%2026-10-04 09:13
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.22%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.83%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%11.3%2026-10-04 09:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.87%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.04%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.09%12.3%2026-10-04 20:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 35.24%2.05I 48.78%NM 40.40%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.36%20.7%2026-10-04 09:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 34.98%2.05I 48.78%NM 40.10%3.30I 30.30%NM 24.91%21.6%2026-10-04 09:14