The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Jukurit v Ässät

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jukurit (Local)

Prediction 35.10%2.85fair odd
EV -1.71%
Edge -0.610%
Kelly -0.949%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.81%35.10%35.17%37.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.672.702.8040.00%37.44%37.04%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ässät (Visit)

Prediction 64.90%1.54fair odd
EV -2.01%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -3.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.81%64.90%64.83%66.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.461.471.5169.93%68.39%68.03%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jukurit (Local): 35.10%; Ässät (Visit): 64.90%. For Jukurit (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.85. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.80, with an expected value of -1.71%; they did not produce positive expected value.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -1.71%E -0.610%K -0.949%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -7.20%E -5.03%K -16.74%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-07 11:00
Bally Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -1.71%E -0.610%K -0.949%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -7.20%E -5.03%K -16.74%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-07 10:59
betPARX🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -1.71%E -0.610%K -0.949%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -7.20%E -5.03%K -16.74%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-07 11:00
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.46%E -1.26%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.55%E -4.55%K -14.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-07 11:39
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.46%E -1.26%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.55%E -4.55%K -14.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-07 11:09
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.46%E -1.26%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.55%E -4.55%K -14.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-07 11:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.46%E -1.26%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.55%E -4.55%K -14.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-07 11:15
Pinnacle🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%EV -4.52%E -1.66%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.07%EV -5.25%E -3.60%K -11.42%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 14:55
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -5.22%E -1.93%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -2.66%E -1.77%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-07 11:15
NordicBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -5.22%E -1.93%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.95%E -2.67%K -8.24%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-07 14:34
Betsson🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -5.22%E -1.93%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.95%E -2.67%K -8.24%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-07 14:34
DraftKings🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -7.32%E -2.77%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -2.01%E -1.33%K -3.94%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 14:54
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -8.03%E -3.06%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.55%E -4.55%K -14.89%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-06 23:42
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.73%E -3.36%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -3.95%E -2.67%K -8.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-06 23:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -12.24%E -4.90%K -8.16%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -3.95%E -2.67%K -8.24%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 08:09
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -12.24%E -4.90%K -8.16%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -3.95%E -2.67%K -8.24%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 08:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -12.24%E -4.90%K -8.16%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -3.95%E -2.67%K -8.24%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 08:14
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -12.24%E -4.90%K -8.16%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -3.95%E -2.67%K -8.24%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-07 08:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%5.8%2026-03-07 14:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%5.8%2026-03-07 14:54
Smarkets◎2.54I 39.37%NM 36.34%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.66%8.3%2026-03-07 11:09

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 24.23%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.83%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.93%3.2%2026-03-07 11:36
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.54%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.53%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.93%3.6%2026-03-07 11:50
ATG (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.54%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.53%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.93%3.6%2026-03-07 11:59
Svenska Spel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.54%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.53%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.93%3.6%2026-03-07 11:59
Unibet (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 25.03%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.85%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%5.1%2026-03-07 11:09
1xBet🎯3.81I 26.25%NM 24.71%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.88%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%6.2%2026-03-07 08:59
Unibet (NL)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.64%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%6.4%2026-03-07 11:50
Grosvenor🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.64%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%6.4%2026-03-07 11:50
Unibet (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.64%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%6.4%2026-03-07 11:50
Casumo🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.64%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.86%6.4%2026-03-07 11:50
Tipico (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.99%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%8.9%2026-03-07 13:20
LeoVegas🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.62%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%9.0%2026-03-07 11:50
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.33%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%10.1%2026-03-07 11:10
Winamax (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.61%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%10.5%2026-03-07 11:10
Everygame🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.48%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.05%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.48%11.9%2026-03-07 14:39
Parions Sport (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.60%1.68I 59.52%NM 51.80%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.60%14.9%2026-03-07 14:49
Winamax (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.15%1.66I 60.24%NM 51.99%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.85%15.9%2026-03-07 11:09
Betclic (FR)🎯3.32I 30.12%NM 25.71%1.66I 60.24%NM 51.41%3.73I 26.81%NM 22.88%17.2%2026-03-07 14:49