The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Jokerit v TPS

Kickoff: 2026-09-25 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jokerit (Local)

Prediction 47.00%2.13fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -2.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.83%46.87%46.94%47.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.012.002.0850.00%49.68%50.00%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TPS (Visit)

Prediction 53.00%1.89fair odd
EV -3.01%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -3.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.47%53.13%53.06%54.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.781.801.8357.80%56.27%55.56%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jokerit (Local): 47.00%; TPS (Visit): 53.00%. For Jokerit (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.13. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.08, with an expected value of -2.24%; they did not produce positive expected value.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -2.24%E -1.08%K -2.08%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -6.72%E -3.82%K -8.84%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-25 14:55
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.65%E -1.78%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.60%E -2.55%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-25 09:09
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.65%E -1.78%K -3.48%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.60%E -2.55%K -5.75%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-25 14:50
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -5.06%E -2.51%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -3.01%E -1.64%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-25 13:25
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.06%E -2.51%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.60%E -2.55%K -5.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-25 13:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.00%E -3.00%K -6.00%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.60%E -2.55%K -5.75%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-25 08:15
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.00%E -3.00%K -6.00%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.60%E -2.55%K -5.75%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-25 08:14
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.00%E -3.00%K -6.00%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.60%E -2.55%K -5.75%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-25 08:15
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.00%E -3.00%K -6.00%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.60%E -2.55%K -5.75%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-25 09:45
betPARX🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.00%E -3.00%K -6.00%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.60%E -2.55%K -5.75%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-25 09:45
Bally Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.00%E -3.00%K -6.00%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.60%E -2.55%K -5.75%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-25 09:44
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.00%E -3.00%K -6.00%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.19%E -3.50%K -8.04%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-25 12:44
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.00%E -3.00%K -6.00%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.31%E -4.80%K -11.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-25 09:10
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.00%E -3.00%K -6.00%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.31%E -4.80%K -11.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-23 08:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.00%E -3.00%K -6.00%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.31%E -4.80%K -11.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-23 08:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.00%E -3.00%K -6.00%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.31%E -4.80%K -11.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-23 08:40
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.00%E -3.00%K -6.00%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.31%E -4.80%K -11.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-23 08:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.97I 50.76%NM 46.90%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.10%8.2%2026-09-25 12:45

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.38%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.88%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.73%2.8%2026-09-25 09:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.38%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.88%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.73%2.8%2026-09-25 09:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.38%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.88%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.73%2.8%2026-09-25 09:45
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.95%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.78%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.27%3.0%2026-09-25 13:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.21%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%5.5%2026-09-25 12:45
1xBet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.24%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.82%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%6.3%2026-09-25 15:31
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.42%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%6.5%2026-09-25 09:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.42%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%6.5%2026-09-25 09:45
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.42%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%6.5%2026-09-25 09:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.42%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%6.5%2026-09-25 09:44
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.34%9.6%2026-09-25 09:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.32%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.80%11.0%2026-09-25 12:45
PMU (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.54%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.76%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%12.5%2026-09-25 09:44
Betclic (FR)🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 35.05%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.08%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.87%13.2%2026-09-25 16:09
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.82%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.94%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.24%16.3%2026-09-25 12:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.00%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.84%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.16%16.6%2026-09-25 12:45