The School of Odds
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Jokerit v Tappara

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jokerit (Local)

Prediction 40.46%2.47fair odd
EV -3.71%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -2.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.23%40.58%40.51%41.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.352.352.3844.44%42.55%42.55%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tappara (Visit)

Prediction 59.54%1.68fair odd
EV -1.75%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -2.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.23%59.42%59.49%60.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.581.581.6565.36%63.18%63.29%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jokerit (Local): 40.46%; Tappara (Visit): 59.54%. For Tappara (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.68. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.65, with an expected value of -1.75%; they did not produce positive expected value.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.71%E -1.56%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.52%E -4.15%K -11.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-18 12:09
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.71%E -1.56%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.52%E -4.15%K -11.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-18 12:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.71%E -1.56%K -2.69%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.52%E -4.15%K -11.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-18 12:09
NordicBet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -4.12%E -1.74%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -4.13%E -2.57%K -6.78%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-18 12:50
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -4.12%E -1.74%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -8.90%E -5.82%K -16.79%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 05:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -4.12%E -1.74%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -8.90%E -5.82%K -16.79%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 05:40
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.93%E -2.10%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.73%E -2.96%K -7.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-18 12:50
BetRivers🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.93%E -2.10%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.73%E -2.96%K -7.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-18 12:15
betPARX🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.93%E -2.10%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.73%E -2.96%K -7.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-18 12:15
Bally Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.93%E -2.10%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.73%E -2.96%K -7.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-18 12:15
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -4.93%E -2.10%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -5.33%E -3.35%K -9.03%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-18 04:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.93%E -2.10%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.52%E -4.15%K -11.43%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 12:09
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -6.95%E -3.02%K -5.35%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -1.75%E -1.06%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-18 01:20
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.97%E -3.99%K -7.18%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.52%E -4.15%K -11.43%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-18 12:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.22I 45.05%NM 40.80%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.20%10.4%2026-09-18 12:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.98%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.35%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.67%3.0%2026-09-18 12:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.53%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.09%3.1%2026-09-18 15:25
ATG (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.53%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.09%3.1%2026-09-18 15:25
Svenska Spel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.38%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.53%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.09%3.1%2026-09-18 15:25
Unibet (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.62%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.60%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.79%5.5%2026-09-18 12:09
1xBet🎯3.21I 31.15%NM 29.33%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.89%6.2%2026-09-18 12:55
Unibet (NL)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.44%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%7.0%2026-09-18 15:25
Grosvenor🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.44%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%7.0%2026-09-18 15:25
Unibet (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.44%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%7.0%2026-09-18 15:25
Casumo🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.44%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%7.0%2026-09-18 15:25
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.31%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%8.6%2026-09-18 07:34
Betclic (FR)🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 29.76%1.88I 53.19%NM 47.97%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.27%10.9%2026-09-18 12:08
Winamax (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.06%1.86I 53.76%NM 48.48%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.47%10.9%2026-09-18 12:09
PMU (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.20%1.88I 53.19%NM 47.37%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.43%12.3%2026-09-18 15:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 29.97%1.82I 54.95%NM 47.75%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.28%15.1%2026-09-18 14:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 30.43%1.76I 56.82%NM 47.55%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.02%19.5%2026-09-18 12:10