The School of Odds
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Jokerit v Pelicans

Kickoff: 2026-09-22 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jokerit (Local)

Prediction 45.56%2.19fair odd
EV +1.61%
Edge +0.720%
Kelly +1.31%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.11%45.52%45.74%47.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.052.022.2351.28%48.79%49.50%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pelicans (Visit)

Prediction 54.44%1.84fair odd
EV -2.01%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -2.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.63%54.48%54.26%56.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.751.751.8059.88%57.18%57.14%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jokerit (Local): 45.56%; Pelicans (Visit): 54.44%. For Jokerit (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.19. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.23, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.61%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%EV +1.61%E +0.720%K +1.31%G +0.021%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.89%EV -8.00%E -4.73%K -11.60%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-22 15:24
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -0.672%E -0.308%K -0.570%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -8.55%E -5.09%K -12.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-22 15:24
Pinnacle🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -1.13%E -0.520%K -0.964%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -7.46%E -4.39%K -10.65%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-22 15:14
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.04%E -0.948%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.28%E -3.03%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-22 15:19
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.91%E -4.04%K -9.74%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-22 15:19
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.32%E -2.06%K -3.92%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.09%E -5.44%K -13.57%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-22 15:14
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -6.60%E -3.22%K -6.28%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.01%E -1.12%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-22 15:24
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -7.96%E -3.94%K -7.81%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -3.10%E -1.74%K -3.98%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-22 13:49
Bally Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -7.96%E -3.94%K -7.81%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -3.10%E -1.74%K -3.98%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-22 13:53
betPARX🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -7.96%E -3.94%K -7.81%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -3.10%E -1.74%K -3.98%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-22 13:49
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.87%E -4.44%K -8.87%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.01%E -1.12%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-22 08:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.87%E -4.44%K -8.87%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.01%E -1.12%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-22 08:53
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.87%E -4.44%K -8.87%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.01%E -1.12%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-22 08:53
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -11.15%E -5.72%K -11.74%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -4.74%E -2.71%K -6.31%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-22 11:04
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -11.15%E -5.72%K -11.74%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -4.74%E -2.71%K -6.31%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-22 11:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -11.15%E -5.72%K -11.74%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -4.74%E -2.71%K -6.31%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-22 11:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -11.15%E -5.72%K -11.74%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -4.74%E -2.71%K -6.31%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-22 11:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%5.4%2026-09-22 15:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%5.4%2026-09-22 15:24
Smarkets◎2.04I 49.02%NM 45.31%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.69%8.2%2026-09-22 15:19

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.75%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.26%4.05I 24.69%NM 24.00%2.9%2026-09-22 11:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.21%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.21%3.3%2026-09-22 14:04
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.21%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.21%3.3%2026-09-22 14:04
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.21%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.21%3.3%2026-09-22 14:04
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.83%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.06%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.11%5.6%2026-09-22 15:19
1xBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.03%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.82%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.15%6.2%2026-09-22 15:24
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.76%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.17%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%6.5%2026-09-22 14:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.76%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.17%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%6.5%2026-09-22 14:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.76%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.17%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%6.5%2026-09-22 14:04
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.76%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.17%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%6.5%2026-09-22 14:04
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.81%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%8.9%2026-09-22 15:24
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.69%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%9.0%2026-09-22 15:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.62%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.87%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.51%11.1%2026-09-22 15:19
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.85%2.16I 46.30%NM 41.14%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.02%12.5%2026-09-22 14:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.31%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.03%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.66%13.3%2026-09-22 15:18
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.39%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.99%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.62%16.3%2026-09-22 15:19
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.07%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.59%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.34%17.4%2026-09-22 15:24