The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Jokerit v Ässät

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jokerit (Local)

Prediction 56.38%1.77fair odd
EV -1.34%
Edge -0.764%
Kelly -1.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.70%56.48%56.39%57.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.701.701.7561.73%58.84%58.82%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ässät (Visit)

Prediction 43.62%2.29fair odd
EV -1.85%
Edge -0.824%
Kelly -1.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.41%43.52%43.61%47.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.132.172.2551.28%47.05%46.08%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jokerit (Local): 56.38%; Ässät (Visit): 43.62%. For Jokerit (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.77. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.75, with an expected value of -1.34%; they did not produce positive expected value.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -1.34%E -0.764%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -14.94%E -7.66%K -15.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-15 11:30
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -1.34%E -0.764%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -14.94%E -7.66%K -15.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-15 11:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -1.34%E -0.764%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -14.94%E -7.66%K -15.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-15 11:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -1.34%E -0.764%K -1.78%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -14.94%E -7.66%K -15.73%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-15 11:35
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.59%E -2.10%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -4.03%E -1.83%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-16 13:55
NordicBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV -3.59%E -2.10%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%EV -4.47%E -2.04%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-16 13:59
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.16%E -2.44%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -4.03%E -1.83%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-16 13:54
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.16%E -2.44%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.22%E -2.89%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 13:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.16%E -2.44%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.22%E -2.89%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 13:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.16%E -2.44%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.22%E -2.89%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 13:54
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.28%E -3.14%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.91%E -2.25%K -4.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-16 14:00
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -5.28%E -3.14%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -5.34%E -2.46%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-16 09:59
Bally Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -5.28%E -3.14%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -5.34%E -2.46%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-16 10:00
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -5.28%E -3.14%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -5.34%E -2.46%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-16 09:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.85%E -3.50%K -8.73%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.22%E -2.89%K -5.40%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-16 13:59
Pinnacle🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -6.41%E -3.86%K -9.71%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -1.85%E -0.824%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-16 15:25
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -8.67%E -5.35%K -13.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -4.03%E -1.83%K -3.36%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-16 13:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.72%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.28%1.3%2026-10-16 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.74I 57.47%NM 56.72%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.28%1.3%2026-10-16 15:25
Smarkets◎1.64I 60.98%NM 56.38%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%8.1%2026-10-16 14:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.97%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.68%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.35%2.0%2026-10-16 10:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.97%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.68%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.35%2.0%2026-10-16 10:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.97%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.68%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.35%2.0%2026-10-16 10:00
Coolbet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.56%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.85%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.59%2.9%2026-10-16 09:09
Casumo🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.15%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.81%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.04%5.8%2026-10-16 10:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.15%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.81%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.04%5.8%2026-10-16 10:00
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.15%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.81%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.04%5.8%2026-10-16 10:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.15%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.81%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.04%5.8%2026-10-16 09:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.96%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%6.1%2026-10-16 13:59
1xBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.25%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.80%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%6.3%2026-10-16 15:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.85%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%8.5%2026-10-16 13:59
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.54%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%9.4%2026-10-16 14:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.16%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.33%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.51%10.5%2026-10-16 13:59
Betclic (FR)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 43.59%2.78I 35.97%NM 31.83%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.58%13.0%2026-10-16 15:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 43.92%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.49%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.59%16.2%2026-10-16 14:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 43.32%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.32%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.36%19.0%2026-10-16 15:15