The School of Odds
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Ilves v Tappara

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ilves (Local)

Prediction 42.06%2.38fair odd
EV +0.517%
Edge +0.216%
Kelly +0.372%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.75%41.86%42.19%43.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.282.252.3945.45%43.92%44.44%41.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tappara (Visit)

Prediction 57.94%1.73fair odd
EV -3.24%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -4.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.85%58.14%57.81%60.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.611.621.6765.36%62.13%61.73%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ilves (Local): 42.06%; Tappara (Visit): 57.94%. For Ilves (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.38. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.39, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.517%.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%EV +0.517%E +0.216%K +0.372%G +0.002%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%EV -8.45%E -5.35%K -14.57%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-06 16:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV +0.096%E +0.040%K +0.070%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -9.03%E -5.75%K -15.84%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-06 17:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV +0.096%E +0.040%K +0.070%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -9.03%E -5.75%K -15.84%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-06 17:15
DraftKings🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -0.745%E -0.316%K -0.548%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -6.13%E -3.79%K -9.89%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-06 16:30
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.27%E -1.42%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.24%E -1.94%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-06 16:35
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -3.27%E -1.42%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -11.35%E -7.42%K -21.41%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-06 16:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -3.27%E -1.42%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -11.35%E -7.42%K -21.41%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-06 16:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -3.27%E -1.42%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -11.35%E -7.42%K -21.41%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-06 16:30
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -3.27%E -1.42%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -11.35%E -7.42%K -21.41%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-06 16:30
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.37%E -2.39%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.39%E -2.66%K -6.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-06 11:00
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.37%E -2.39%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.39%E -2.66%K -6.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-06 11:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.37%E -2.39%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.13%E -3.79%K -9.89%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-06 16:50
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.37%E -2.39%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.71%E -4.17%K -11.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-06 17:25
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -5.37%E -2.39%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -9.03%E -5.75%K -15.84%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-06 16:35
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.47%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.24%E -1.94%K -4.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-06 15:30
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.47%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.24%E -1.94%K -4.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-06 16:35
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.47%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.24%E -1.94%K -4.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-06 16:35
Bally Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.47%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.24%E -1.94%K -4.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-06 15:30
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.47%E -3.40%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.24%E -1.94%K -4.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-06 15:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.18%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.82%1.2%2026-03-06 17:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.58%3.4%2026-03-06 17:25
Smarkets◎2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%8.0%2026-03-06 17:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.97%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.34%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.69%2.5%2026-03-06 16:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.28%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.48%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%3.1%2026-03-06 17:10
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.28%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.48%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%3.1%2026-03-06 17:05
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.28%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.48%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%3.1%2026-03-06 17:10
Unibet (UK)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.36%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.77%4.6%2026-03-06 16:50
1xBet🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 30.14%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.73%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%6.3%2026-03-06 17:10
Unibet (NL)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.30%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%6.5%2026-03-06 17:10
Casumo🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.30%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%6.5%2026-03-06 17:10
Grosvenor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.30%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%6.5%2026-03-06 17:05
Unibet (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.30%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%6.5%2026-03-06 17:05
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.74%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.77%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%8.5%2026-03-06 16:35
LeoVegas🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.49%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%9.1%2026-03-06 17:10
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%9.6%2026-03-06 16:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.06%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.43%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.52%11.0%2026-03-06 16:50
Everygame🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.51%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.12%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.38%11.1%2026-03-06 16:30
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 30.50%1.89I 52.91%NM 46.00%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.50%15.0%2026-03-06 17:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.84%1.86I 53.76%NM 46.43%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.73%15.8%2026-03-06 16:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 30.71%1.86I 53.76%NM 45.90%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.39%17.1%2026-03-06 17:05