The School of Odds
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Ilves v SaiPa

2026-11-15 13:00 UTC — Liiga

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ilves (Local)

Prediction 61.96%1.61fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -2.14%
Kelly -5.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.61%61.98%61.86%63.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.531.531.5666.67%65.49%65.36%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SaiPa (Visit)

Prediction 38.04%2.63fair odd
EV -1.09%
Edge -0.420%
Kelly -0.682%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.59%38.02%38.14%39.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.502.502.6041.67%39.94%40.00%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Ilves (Local): 61.96%; SaiPa (Visit): 38.04%. For SaiPa (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.63. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.60, with an expected value of -1.09%; they do not produce positive expected value.

14 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.34%E -2.14%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -4.90%E -1.96%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-13 23:10
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -3.34%E -2.14%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -4.90%E -1.96%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-13 23:25
theScore Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -3.34%E -2.14%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -8.70%E -3.63%K -6.21%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-13 21:40
Betsson🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -4.58%E -2.98%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -5.66%E -2.28%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-13 23:10
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.20%E -3.40%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.90%E -1.96%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-13 21:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.20%E -3.40%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.90%E -1.96%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-13 21:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.20%E -3.40%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.90%E -1.96%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-13 21:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.20%E -3.40%K -9.82%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.80%E -2.77%K -4.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-13 21:39
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.53%EV -6.44%E -4.27%K -12.63%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.47%EV -4.14%E -1.64%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-13 21:40
BetRivers🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -7.06%E -4.71%K -14.12%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.09%E -0.420%K -0.682%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-13 21:59
Bally Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -7.06%E -4.71%K -14.12%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.09%E -0.420%K -0.682%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-13 21:59
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -7.06%E -4.71%K -14.12%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.09%E -0.420%K -0.682%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-13 21:59
Casumo🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.06%E -4.71%K -14.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.70%E -3.63%K -6.21%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-13 21:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.49I 67.11%NM 60.89%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.11%10.2%2026-11-13 22:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (14)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.80%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.18%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.02%3.2%2026-11-13 21:59
ATG (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.80%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.18%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.02%3.2%2026-11-13 21:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.80%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.18%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.02%3.2%2026-11-13 21:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.97%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%5.8%2026-11-13 21:59
1xBet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.77%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.83%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%6.3%2026-11-13 21:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.66%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%6.9%2026-11-13 21:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.66%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%6.9%2026-11-13 21:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.84%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%8.5%2026-11-13 22:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.00%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.17%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.83%10.9%2026-11-13 21:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.72%3.27I 30.58%NM 27.56%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%11.0%2026-11-13 21:59
Grosvenor🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 51.65%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.92%11.3%2026-11-13 21:59
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.96%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%11.6%2026-11-13 21:58
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 48.08%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.36%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.56%19.5%2026-11-13 21:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 47.98%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.83%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.20%19.8%2026-11-13 21:59