The School of Odds
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Ilves v Pelicans

2026-11-11 16:30 UTC — Liiga

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ilves (Local)

Prediction 53.20%1.88fair odd
EV -1.04%
Edge -0.560%
Kelly -1.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.11%53.20%53.55%55.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.711.721.8663.29%58.46%58.14%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pelicans (Visit)

Prediction 23.63%4.23fair odd
EV +0.441%
Edge +0.104%
Kelly +0.136%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.40%23.63%23.71%24.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.964.104.2529.85%25.28%24.39%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.16%4.32fair odd
EV +0.297%
Edge +0.069%
Kelly +0.089%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.78%23.16%22.74%24.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.104.204.3327.78%24.41%23.81%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Ilves (Local): 53.20%; Pelicans (Visit): 23.63%; Draw: 23.16%. For Pelicans (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.23. 3 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.25, producing a positive expected value of +0.441%.

9 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.56%EV -5.30%E -2.98%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.85%EV +0.441%E +0.104%K +0.136%G +0.001%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.59%EV -0.398%E -0.093%K -0.121%G +0.000%3.0%2026-11-05 10:17
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.56%EV -5.30%E -2.98%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.85%EV +0.441%E +0.104%K +0.136%G +0.001%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.59%EV -0.398%E -0.093%K -0.121%G +0.000%3.0%2026-11-05 10:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.56%EV -5.30%E -2.98%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.85%EV +0.441%E +0.104%K +0.136%G +0.001%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.59%EV -0.398%E -0.093%K -0.121%G +0.000%3.0%2026-11-05 10:20
1xBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.81%EV -10.09%E -5.97%K -14.62%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.40%EV -0.505%E -0.120%K -0.157%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.78%EV +0.297%E +0.069%K +0.089%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-05 10:34
Coolbet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 52.11%EV -1.04%E -0.560%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.35%EV -1.92%E -0.463%K -0.610%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.54%EV -8.51%E -2.15%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.2%2026-11-05 10:19
Unibet (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.67%EV -8.49%E -4.94%K -11.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -3.10%E -0.757%K -1.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -2.71%E -0.646%K -0.848%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-05 10:17
Casumo🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.67%EV -8.49%E -4.94%K -11.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -3.10%E -0.757%K -1.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -2.71%E -0.646%K -0.848%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-05 10:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.67%EV -8.49%E -4.94%K -11.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -3.10%E -0.757%K -1.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -2.71%E -0.646%K -0.848%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-05 10:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.08%EV -6.89%E -3.94%K -9.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -5.47%E -1.37%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.27%EV -1.56%E -0.366%K -0.479%G +0.000%5.7%2026-11-05 10:25
Grosvenor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.64%EV -12.21%E -7.40%K -18.79%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.82%EV -6.65%E -1.68%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -7.35%E -1.84%K -2.45%G +0.000%10.9%2026-11-05 10:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 53.43%EV -10.09%E -5.97%K -14.62%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.89%EV -10.67%E -2.82%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.69%EV -7.81%E -1.96%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.8%2026-11-05 10:24
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -11.15%E -6.68%K -16.64%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.91%EV -11.38%E -3.03%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.41%EV -7.35%E -1.84%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-05 10:23
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.65%EV -10.62%E -6.32%K -15.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -12.56%E -3.39%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.98%EV -5.03%E -1.23%K -1.62%G +0.000%10.9%2026-11-05 10:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 52.37%EV -15.41%E -9.69%K -26.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.49%EV -19.65%E -5.78%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.13%EV -16.61%E -4.61%K -6.39%G +0.000%20.1%2026-11-05 10:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 52.83%EV -15.94%E -10.09%K -27.48%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 24.92%EV -20.83%E -6.22%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.26%EV -13.14%E -3.50%K -4.78%G +0.000%19.8%2026-11-05 10:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (9)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.41%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%4.0%2026-11-05 10:19
betPARX🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%5.0%2026-11-05 10:17
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%5.0%2026-11-05 10:20
Bally Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%5.0%2026-11-05 10:19
Betsson🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%5.5%2026-11-05 10:20
theScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%6.0%2026-11-05 10:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%6.3%2026-11-05 10:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-11-05 10:17
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-11-05 10:17